Effective real-time forecasting of inundation maps for early warning systems during typhoons

Abstract

Abstract. Accurate forecasts of hourly inundation depths are essential for inundation warning and mitigation during typhoons. In this paper, an effective forecasting model is proposed to yield 1-to 6-h leadtime inundation maps for early warning systems during typhoons. The proposed model based on Support Vector M achine (SVM ) is composed of two modules, point forecasting and spatial expansion. In the first module, the rainfall intensity, inundation depth, cumulative rainfall and forecasted inundation depths are considered as model input for point forecasting. In the second module, the geographic information of inundation grids and the inundation forecasts of reference points are used to yield inundation maps for spatial expansion. The results show that the proposed model is able to provide accurate point forecasts at each inundation point. M oreover, the spatial expansion module is capable of producing accurate spatial inundation forecasts. Obviously, the proposed model provides reasonable spatial inundation forecasts, and is able to deal with the nonlinear relationships between inputs and desired output. In conclusion, the proposed model is suitable and useful for inundation forecasting.