Effective traffic management based on bounded rationality and indifference bands

Abstract

Constrained cognitive abilities cause imperfections in drivers' choice behaviour and appear largely systematic and predictable. This study introduces the concept of 'effective control space' to build upon this knowledge as an opportunity to increase the effectiveness of Dynamic Traffic Management (DTM). Within the control space boundaries it is assumed that drivers do not act upon the effects of DTM measures, they behave as being indifferent to them. This study debates that: (i) drivers' ability to detect changes in attributes of their trip or the performance of a traffic system is limited, (ii) drivers make mistakes in estimating the value of such changes and (iii) drivers apply a great diversity of choice patterns but do not necessary adapt their choice. Hence, for some DTM measures to be effective effects should not exceed the control space boundaries, whereas other DTM measures need to give drivers an incentive that exceeds these boundaries. Knowledge on the effective control space may support road authorities to operationalise their measures most effectively. With the theories of indifference bands and decision-making as starting point a theoretical and conceptual framework are provided, supported by a numerical example to demonstrate how application can steer a system towards its optimal state.

Analysis of inertial choice behavior based expected and experienced savings from a real-world route choice experiment

“…It is argued that this 'range of inattention' along the demand curve gives retailers an incentive for small price increments to increase profit [8]. Analogically and as conceptualised and demonstrated in earlier work by the authors [9,10], when applied in the context of transport thresholds may give policy makers, road operators and traffic engineers an incentive 'lever' to modify choice attributes, which in turn will increase the performance of the traffic system.…”

“…The aforementioned findings offer an illustration of the size of thresholds under different circumstances. Examples of their application are given in [9,10] which showed a reduction in total travel time of 5% compared to user equilibrium in case of an threshold of 4 minutes for a trip of approximately 22 minutes. Additionally, the improvement in the network performance increased with an increasing threholds, up to 14% in case of a threshold of 10 minutes.…”

Improving the road network performance with dynamic route guidance by considering the indifference band of road users

“…This perspective of individual decision making is known as bounded rationality and contributes to the indifference band (IB). On the basis of a simple example, using the green split of traffic lights as control mechanism, it was already demonstrated that the application of IBs can successfully steer a system towards its optimal state [8]. This paper therefore proposes the use of these psychological constructs to improve the network performance, in such a way that the user interests remain respected.…”

Travelers' ability to observe changes in traffic intensities and traffic light settings

“…Using this knowledge on human imperfection and bounded rationality provides opportunities for the effective operation of traffic network management as stated by the concept of 'regulation flexibility' [6]. This concept tries to take advantage of traveler's (in)ability to respond to some change in the attributes of their trip or the traffic system, in contrast to the many research that aims to compensate for people's failure to detect changes as a result of change blindness [7,8].…”

“…In this paper, the decision-making process is regarded as a process consisting of three successive stages: 'observation', 'evaluation' and 'choice'. A conceptual framework is discussed in [6], which illustrates how perceptual factors influence the three stages and lead to regulation flexibility and traffic management measures. This paper focuses on observation and evaluation.…”