Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps

Schneider, Max; McDowell, Michelle; Guttorp, Peter; Steel, E. Ashley; Fleischhut, Nadine

doi:10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Poor data visualization can contribute to ineffective or subpar science communication, as highlighted by Padilla (2022), who discusses the challenges of conveying uncertainty through maps and emphasizes the need for effective visualization strategies to enhance comprehension of these uncertainties. Clear and accurate representation of uncertainty is relevant for many geoscientific challenges such as aftershock forecast maps (Schneider et al, 2022). The incorrect use of color in data visualization, as highlighted in Crameri et al (2020), can also lead to misinterpretation of information.…”

Section: Poor Quality and Lack Of Rigormentioning

confidence: 99%

Editorial: The shadowlands of science communication in academia — definitions, problems, and possible solutions

Gani,

Arnal,

Beattie

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Science communication is an important part of research, including in the geosciences, as it can benefit society, science, and make science more publicly accountable. However, much of this work takes place in “shadowlands” that are neither fully seen nor understood. These shadowlands are spaces, aspects, and practices of science communication which are not clearly defined and may be harmful with respect to the science being communicated or for the science communicators themselves. With the increasing expectation in academia that researchers should participate in science communication, there is a need to address some of the major issues that lurk in these shadowlands. Here the editorial team of Geoscience Communication seeks to shine a light on the shadowlands of geoscience communication and suggest some solutions and examples of effective practice. The issues broadly fall under three categories: 1) harmful or unclear objectives; 2) poor quality and lack of rigor; and 3) exploitation of science communicators working within academia. Ameliorating these will require: 1) clarifying objectives and audiences; 2) adequately training science communicators; and 3) giving science communication equivalent recognition to other professional activities. By shining a light on the shadowlands of science communication in academia and proposing potential remedies, our aim is to cultivate a more transparent and responsible landscape for geoscience communication—a transformation that will ultimately benefit the progress of science, the welfare of scientists, and more broadly society at large.

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Section: Poor Quality and Lack Of Rigormentioning

confidence: 99%

Editorial: The shadowlands of science communication in academia — definitions, problems, and possible solutions

Gani,

Arnal,

Beattie

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Moreover, pre-existing instrumentation may be sparse owing to inadequate seismic awareness (e.g., no recorded history of damaging seismic events), regional inaccessibility, or political instability and lack of funding. In turn, the sparsity of instrumentation and seismic data negatively impacts the confidence bounds on aftershock forecasts, which is a necessary aspect of hazard communication (Michael et al, 2020;Schneider et al, 2022).…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distributed Acoustic Sensing for aftershock monitoring: the case of the 2019 Mw 4.9 Le Teil earthquake

van den Ende,

Ampuero,

Courboulex

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Recent developments in Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) have greatly expanded our capabilities for dense geophysical instrumentation by tapping into existing (but unused) fibre-optic telecommunication networks. Leveraging these so-called "dark fibres" permits an extremely rapid deployment of thousands of vibration sensors over distances of several tens of kilometres, which is ideal for rapid postseismic response efforts. Here we report on the use of dark-fibre DAS for monitoring of the aftershock sequence of the 2019-11-11 Mw 4.9 Le Teil, France earthquake. Through comparison with the local seismometer network, we assess the capabilities of the DAS array to detect and locate small-magnitude seismic events. Likely owing to cable deployment and DAS sensing characteristics, we find that the DAS noise floor is up to 3 orders of magnitude higher than that of nearby seismometers, which greatly inhibits the detection and analysis of the low-energy events. However, locating a selected aftershock with DAS yields an accuracy and precision that is comparable to that of the seismic network, even though the DAS array has a relatively unfavourable geometry. Based on these observations we provide a number of recommendations for routinely incorporating DAS into postseismic response protocols, and for optimal use of DAS alongside conventional seismic instrumentation.

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“…lower confidence in the hazard at Hilo because of green color in Figure 9a versus yellow color in Figure 9b). In the context of aftershock forecast maps, Schneider et al (2022) found that showing the lower/upper bounds was more effective than the other two approaches at communicating ''potential surprise'' locations (i.e. locations where high uncertainty could lead to worse outcomes than predicted).…”

Section: Hazard Examplementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Researchers have examined various ways to visualize uncertainties in a map (e.g. Schneider et al, 2022). For instance, one way is to plot the central estimates (e.g.…”

Section: Uses Of Fractile Hazard Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uses of epistemic uncertainties in the USGS National Seismic Hazard Models

Kwong

Jaiswal

2023

Earthquake Spectra

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The need for US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) to report estimates of epistemic uncertainties in the hazard (e.g. fractile hazard curves) in all forthcoming releases is increasing. With fractile hazard curves as potential new outputs from the USGS 2023 NSHM, a simultaneous need is to help end-users better understand these epistemic uncertainties and clarify their potential uses. In this article, we address the latter need by (1) characterizing epistemic uncertainties in two updates of the USGS NSHM (2014 for California and 2021 for Hawaii), (2) illustrating a variety of downstream applications of fractile hazard curves in both hazard and risk contexts, and (3) discussing implications from the various types of uncertainties. We found that the epistemic uncertainty in hazard is generally larger for Hawaii than for California, the epistemic uncertainty in hazard can be reasonably approximated with a lognormal distribution for most of the cases considered, and the correlation between epistemic uncertainty in hazard at two different intensity measure levels generally varies with both location and type of intensity measure. Furthermore, we developed models for readily generating approximate fractile hazard curves in California and Hawaii. Finally, given the complexities involved in the hazard modeling process, we developed an open-source interactive tool to enable a broad range of users to independently examine and potentially start using such epistemic uncertainties for their respective applications.

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Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps

Cited by 8 publications

References 45 publications

Editorial: The shadowlands of science communication in academia — definitions, problems, and possible solutions

Editorial: The shadowlands of science communication in academia — definitions, problems, and possible solutions

Distributed Acoustic Sensing for aftershock monitoring: the case of the 2019 Mw 4.9 Le Teil earthquake

Uses of epistemic uncertainties in the USGS National Seismic Hazard Models

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