Effective vaccination strategies for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer based on the mathematical model with a stochastic process

Abstract

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection poses a significant risk to women's health by causing cervical cancer. In addition to HPV, cervical cancer incidence rates can be influenced by various factors, including human immunodeficiency virus and herpes, as well as screening policy. In this study, a mathematical model with stochastic processes was developed to analyze HPV transmission between genders and its subsequent impact on cervical cancer incidence. The model simulations suggest that both‐gender vaccination is far more effective than female‐only vaccination in preventing an increase in cervical cancer incidence. With increasing stochasticity, the difference between the number of patients in the vaccinated group and the number in the nonvaccinated group diminishes. To distinguish the patient population distribution of the vaccinated from the nonvaccinated, we calculated effect size (Cohen's distance) in addition to Student's t‐test. The model analysis suggests a threshold vaccination rate for both genders for a clear reduction of cancer incidence when significant stochastic factors are present.