Effectiveness of In-Season Manager Changes in English Premier League Football

Besters, Lucas; Ours, Jan C. van; Tuijl, Martin A. van

doi:10.1007/s10645-016-9277-0

Cited by 20 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The cumulative surprise measures how far teams perform below expectations and is calculated as the sum of the differences between the number of actual points and the expected points derived from betting odds. Using 36 dismissals and 33 matched counterfactual dismissals from the Dutch Eredivisie in the 14 seasons between 2000/01 and 2013/14, the authors also find that forced coach replacements do not improve team performance Besters, van Ours, and van Tuijl (2016). replicate the methods of van Ours and van Tuijl (2016) using 45 dismissals and 34 counterfactual dismissals from the English Premier League between improve following a coach's dismissal and that a successful managerial turnover remains highly unpredictable.…”

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confidence: 70%

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The Role of Boards’ Misperceptions in the Relation Between Managerial Turnover and Performance: Evidence From European Football

Flepp,

Franck

2019

SSRN Journal

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In this paper, we account for boards' misperceptions when replacing a top manager by differentiating between managerial turnovers following actual poor performance and managerial turnovers following seemingly poor performance due to bad luck in order to investigate their subsequent effects on performance. We focus on managerial changes within football organizations and analyze dismissals from the top European leagues. To account for the mean reversion of performance, we create a control group of non-dismissals using the nearest neighbor approach. To account for boards' misperceptions, we differentiate between dismissals and non-dismissals that occur either due to poor playing performance on the pitch or due to a sequence of bad luck, which is measured using "expected goals". We find that dismissals after poor playing performance on the pitch increase subsequent performance, while dismissals after a series of bad luck do not. Our results have important implications regarding the design of future turnover studies and the costs of boards' ineffective turnover decisions. JEL Classification: J44, L83

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confidence: 70%

“…Following van Ours and van Tuijl (2016), we ignore coaching changes within the first four and last four match weeks. Further, followingBesters et al (2016), we only consider the first coach dismissal of a team within a season. For each coaching change, we documented at least one source that unambiguously states that the change was involuntarily.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Role of Boards’ Misperceptions in the Relation Between Managerial Turnover and Performance: Evidence From European Football

Flepp,

Franck

2019

SSRN Journal

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“…Studies of performance often focus on parts of the game such as manager changes and their impact (Gonzalez-Gomez, Picazo-Tadeo, & Garcia-Rubio, 2011) or the impact of ownership structure on team performance (Wilson, Plumley, & Ramchandani, 2013;Flint , Plumley, & Wilson, 2015;Besters, Van Ours, & Van Tuijl, 2016). While clubs can improve their performance with a mid-season manager change, they are not as efficient as clubs that do not change managers.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative advantage as a success factor in football clubs: Evidence from the English Premier League (EPL)

Georgievski

Labadze

AboElsoud

2019

jhse

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As in international trade, football clubs can benefit more if they specialize in what they have or can create comparative advantage. In a world of scarce resources, clubs need to identify what makes them successful and invest accordingly. The main objective of this study is to understand what influences the success of football teams in the English Premier League (EPL) championship games. Based on Ricardo's model of comparative advantage and applying Factor analysis as well as Panel data approach, this study investigates the need for specialization and tradeoffs between defensive and offensive patterns of the game in order for EPL clubs to be more successful. The data used in this study covers the period 2010-2017 of the EPL data. The results reveal that, in general, a better defense is slightly more important for success. The outcomes were different for the top-and bottom-ranking clubs. We found that it is more important for bottom-ranking teams to play better defensively than offensively, while for top-performing teams, the probability of success is more affected by offensive style. In addition, there is a tradeoff between these two styles of play; when bottom-ranking teams try to play better defensively, it often comes at the expense of a poor offensive pattern, but almost no one plays offense at the expense of a poor defense. Unlike the bottom-ranking teams, the topranking teams did not face tradeoffs, but they were able to improve both their defensive and offensive patterns. The recommendation put forward by this study argue that bottom-ranking clubs should specialize

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“…The results of a soccer game can provide objective measures about the performance of each player and his or her team. Interactions inside a team can be considered as a cooperation based in a strategic plan, situational variables and restrictions in the general game context (Besters et al, 2016). Even controlling these metrics, soccer still has expected and unexpected facts that influence the result from a match (Aslan, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Trees for the Prediction of Outcome of Soccer Games - Historical Data Analysis

Stefano

Farroco²,

Lima

et al. 2020

BJD

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RESUMO Este artigo apresenta o design e os resultados da submissão dos pesquisadores da Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF) ao Desafio de Previsão de Futebol de Aprendizado de Máquina, organizado pelo Springer Machine Learning Journal. As etapas de análise de dados, construção do modelo e escolha de uma Árvore de Decisão para prever os resultados de partidas de futebol são explicadas e discutidas. Este estudo também analisa a variação da porcentagem de vitórias de equipes em casa em diferentes países. Algumas possibilidades para explicar essas variações, como tamanho do país e infraestrutura de treinamento, são levantadas. A intenção é fornecer aos pesquisadores do campo informações para dados adicionais que possam ajudar na previsão de jogos em regiões com diversos padrões.

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Effectiveness of In-Season Manager Changes in English Premier League Football

Cited by 20 publications

References 24 publications

The Role of Boards’ Misperceptions in the Relation Between Managerial Turnover and Performance: Evidence From European Football

The Role of Boards’ Misperceptions in the Relation Between Managerial Turnover and Performance: Evidence From European Football

Comparative advantage as a success factor in football clubs: Evidence from the English Premier League (EPL)

Decision Trees for the Prediction of Outcome of Soccer Games - Historical Data Analysis

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