Effectiveness of interventions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in a large urban jail: a model-based analysis

Malloy, Giovanni S. P.; Puglisi, Lisa; Brandeau, Margaret L.; Harvey, Tyler D.; Wang, Emily A.

doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-042898

Cited by 43 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…A polynomial relationship—more specifically, a quadratic relationship—seems to appear in the raw data, consistent with previous analyses indicating that reductions in jail population were associated with a decrease in transmission rates among detainees, which would in turn reduce the associated risk of spread of jail-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections to surrounding communities. 53 …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A polynomial relationship-more specifically, a quadratic relationship-seems to appear in the raw data, consistent with previous analyses indicating that reductions in jail population were associated with a decrease in transmission rates among detainees, which would in turn reduce the associated risk of spread of jail-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections to surrounding communities. 53 In multivariate panel regressions presented in Table 2, there persists both significant positive association and significant quadratic relationship between daily jail population and COVID-19 growth rates. During our sampling period, we estimate that reducing jail population by 80% would have been associated with a 2.0% (95% CI, 0.8%-3.1%) reduction in daily COVID-19 growth rates (calculated from the quadratic specification in Table 2).…”

Section: Jama Network Open | Public Healthmentioning

confidence: 91%

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Association of Jail Decarceration and Anticontagion Policies With COVID-19 Case Growth Rates in US Counties

Reinhart

Chen

2021

JAMA Netw Open

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IMPORTANCE Mass incarceration is known to foster infectious disease outbreaks, amplification of infectious diseases in surrounding communities, and exacerbation of health disparities in disproportionately policed communities. To date, however, policy interventions intended to achieve epidemic mitigation in US communities have neglected to account for decarceration as a possible means of protecting public health and safety.OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association of jail decarceration and government anticontagion policies with reductions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cohort study used county-level data from January toNovember 2020 to analyze COVID-19 cases, jail populations, and anticontagion policies in a panel regression model to estimate the association of jail decarceration and anticontagion policies with COVID-19 growth rates. A total of 1605 counties with data available on both jail population and COVID-19 cases were included in the analysis. This sample represents approximately 51% of US counties, 72% of the US population, and 60% of the US jail population.EXPOSURES Changes to jail populations and implementation of 10 anticontagion policies: nursing home visitation bans, school closures, mask mandates, prison visitation bans, stay-at-home orders, and closure of nonessential businesses, gyms, bars, movie theaters, and restaurants. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESDaily COVID-19 case growth rates. RESULTSIn the 1605 counties included in this study, the mean (SD) prison population was 283.38 (657.78) individuals, and the mean (SD) population was 315.24 (2151.01) persons per square mile. An estimated 80% reduction in US jail populations, achievable through noncarceral management of nonviolent alleged offenses and in line with average international incarceration rates, would have been associated with a 2.0% (95% CI, 0.8%-3.1%) reduction in daily COVID-19 case growth rates. Jail decarceration was associated with 8 times larger reductions in COVID-19 growth rates in counties with above-median population density (4.6%; 95% CI, 2.2%-7.1%) relative to those below this median (0.5%; 95% CI, 0.1%-0.9%). Nursing home visitation bans were associated with a 7.3% (95% CI, 5.8%-8.9%) reduction in COVID-19 case growth rates, followed by school closures (4.3%; 95% CI, 2.0%-6.6%), mask mandates (2.5%; 95% CI, 1.7%-3.3%), prison visitation bans (1.2%; 95% CI, 0.2%-2.2%), and stay-at-home orders (0.8%; 95% CI, 0.1%-1.6%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEAlthough many studies have documented that high incarceration rates are associated with communitywide health harms, this study is, to date, the first to show that decarceration is associated with population-level public health benefits. Its findings suggest that, among other anticontagion interventions, large-scale decarceration and changes to pretrial (continued) Key Points Question Were jail decarceration and government implementation of anticontagion policies associated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in US counties? Findings In this cohort study of 1605 cou...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Jama Network Open | Public Healthmentioning

confidence: 91%

Association of Jail Decarceration and Anticontagion Policies With COVID-19 Case Growth Rates in US Counties

Reinhart

Chen

2021

JAMA Netw Open

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“…early release of elderly inmates) ( Byrne et al 2020 b : 883). While the effectiveness of strategies for reducing the COVID-19 transmission in prisons is yet to be established ( Malloy et al 2021 ), it is increasingly clear that some strategies ‘may have serious unintended consequences for prisoners’ ( Byrne et al 2020 b : 890), i.e. effects outside the avowed objectives ( Oliver et al 2019 : 63) to ‘preserve life’ and ‘safeguard the mental and physical health’ of prisoners and staff ( Ministry of Justice and HM Prison and Probation Service 2020 : 2) (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Locked up While Locked Down: Prisoners’ Experiences of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Suhomlinova

Ayres

Tonkin

et al. 2021

The British Journal of Criminology

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Worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on prisoners. The prison environment and prisoner health put prison populations at a higher risk of contracting COVID-19. As a result, prison systems have adopted mitigation strategies to reduce the transmission of the virus into and within prisons. These strategies, however, have had an unintended impact on prisoners and their living conditions. In this article, we explore prisoners’ lived experiences of the pandemic in English and Welsh prisons, captured through correspondence with prisoners throughout 12 months of regime restrictions, from April 2020 to April 2021. Drawing on prisoner narratives, the analysis reveals how the restricted regime has exacerbated the pains of imprisonment and had a detrimental impact on prisoners.

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“…In this context, population-wide antigen mass-screening, as performed in Slovakia, or among specific asymptomatic population groups, might have the potential to identify a considerable number of potential infectious individuals with no or mild symptoms at a larger scale, in turn preventing further short-term transmission [ 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 ]. However, it remains unclear how often mass-screening efforts of a whole population has to be repeated to achieve sustainable effects in the containment of the spread of SARS-CoV-2.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Screening Tests in Bavarian Healthcare Facilities during the Second Wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

Tischer

Stupp

Janson

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Due to the lack of data on asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-positive persons in healthcare institutions, they represent an inestimable risk. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to evaluate the first 1,000,000 reported screening tests of asymptomatic staff, patients, residents, and visitors in hospitals and long-term care (LTC) facilities in the State of Bavaria over a period of seven months. Data were used from the online database BayCoRei (Bavarian Corona Screening Tests), established in July 2020. Descriptive analyses were performed, describing the temporal pattern of persons that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or antigen tests, stratified by facility. Until 15 March 2021, this database had collected 1,038,146 test results of asymptomatic subjects in healthcare facilities (382,240 by RT-PCR, and 655,906 by antigen tests). Of the RT-PCR tests, 2.2% (n = 8380) were positive: 3.0% in LTC facilities, 2.2% in hospitals, and 1.2% in rehabilitation institutions. Of the antigen tests, 0.4% (n = 2327) were positive: 0.5% in LTC facilities, and 0.3% in both hospitals and rehabilitation institutions, respectively. In LTC facilities and hospitals, infection surveillance using RT-PCR tests, or the less expensive but less sensitive, faster antigen tests, could facilitate the long-term management of the healthcare workforce, patients, and residents.

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Effectiveness of interventions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in a large urban jail: a model-based analysis

Cited by 43 publications

References 16 publications

Association of Jail Decarceration and Anticontagion Policies With COVID-19 Case Growth Rates in US Counties

Association of Jail Decarceration and Anticontagion Policies With COVID-19 Case Growth Rates in US Counties

Locked up While Locked Down: Prisoners’ Experiences of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Evaluation of Screening Tests in Bavarian Healthcare Facilities during the Second Wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

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