Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity

Menezes, Esther; Maia, Alexandre Gori; Carvalho, Cristiane Silva de

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.016

Cited by 54 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…All studies consider road mode for calculating the EE. Only Szárz (2011), Saujot and Lefèvre (2016), He et al (2011) and Menezes et al (2017) [13][14][15][16] also consider rail or nonmotorized transport (walking or cycling). Therefore, at this point, it becomes evident the lack of studies that assess EE considering all transport modes.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi-Tier Approach to Estimate Energy Efficiency in Urban Passenger Mobility

Gonçalves

Bandeira

Assis

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Recent studies evidence a lack of accurate methods to estimate energy efficiency in urban areas. This is due to the complex nature of obtaining wide range of activity and energy data from a single municipality, especially from developing countries, where data is usually scarce. Under these circumstances, this paper develops a method for estimating the energy efficiency in urban passenger mobility, considering three different levels of detail. The innovative factor is the use of a multi-tier approach to compare and adjust outputs. The method was applied in Sorocaba, Brazil, estimating a baseline of energy efficiency in this city. Results: Results show that energy efficiency varied from 0.67 passenger per kilometer/Mega Joule in 2013 to 0.70 passenger per kilometer /Mega Joule in 2017, which are consistent with the Brazilian passenger transport energy efficiency. Conclusions: The method proved to be an important mechanism for benchmarking purposes and for the decision-making process on transport investments. Moreover, it can be applied in cities from countries with different cultural and economic contexts.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi-Tier Approach to Estimate Energy Efficiency in Urban Passenger Mobility

Gonçalves

Bandeira

Assis

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Menezes et al constructed a dynamic simulation model and used the (BAU) scenario as a reference to assess the potential for greenhouse gas emissions in São Paulo's transport department [16]. Ohnishi et al established a framework for a comprehensive assessment of I/URS by combining material flow analysis (MFA), carbon footprint (CF) and emerge methods [17].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Low-Carbon City: Empirical Study of Shanghai

Yang

2018

Sustainability

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A low-carbon economy is an inevitable choice for achieving economic and ecological sustainable development. It is of significant importance to analyze a city's low-carbon economy development level scientifically and reasonably. In order to achieve this goal, we propose an urban low-carbon economic development level evaluation model based on the matter-element extension method. First, we select some indicators from the existing indicator system based on past research and experience. Then, a matter-element model is established on the basis of weight to evaluate the level of a city's low-carbon, the critical value of each index is determined through the classical domain and the section domain, calculating the correlation degree of a single index and a comprehensive index. Finally, we analyze the low-carbon economy development status and future development trends according to the analysis results. In this study, we select Shanghai as an empirical study-the results show that Shanghai is a city with a low-carbon level and there is a trend of further improvement in Shanghai's low-carbon economy. But its low carbon construction and low carbon technology investment are relatively low. In summary, this method can provide another angle for evaluating a city's low-carbon economy.

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“…While the model is suitable for the analysis of local, regional, and national transport systems, its primary focus is on national systems. As an example study to the local level, Menezes et al (2017) used ForFITS to evaluate low-carbon urban development strategies for the transport sector in a Brazilian megacity, São Paulo. Their motivation to use ForFITS was to demonstrate the usefulness of the tool in the context of a megacity and produce internationally comparable results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact assessment of supply-side and demand-side policies on energy consumption and CO2 emissions from urban passenger transportation: The case of Istanbul

Batur

Bayram

Кочкодан

2019

Journal of Cleaner Production

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The transportation sector accounts for about a quarter of global energy consumption and energy-related carbon emissions. To design and realize sustainable urban transportation, it is vital to understand and analyze interactions between a set of dynamic factors that shape transportation patterns, behaviors, and impacts. To this end, this study aims to develop a systems dynamics (SD) model for Istanbul, Turkey to simulate its urban motorized passenger transport system for analyzing numerous policies under different scenarios and assessing their potential effects in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the upcoming years. The constructed SD model includes four subsystems: population, household disposable income, transport, and energy and CO2 emissions. Based on historical data (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and model validation processes, the energy consumption and the associated CO2 emissions from motorized passenger transport are forecasted for the following scenarios. The first one is business as usual scenario (BAU) which is designed to show how energy use and the associated CO2 emissions would evolve over time with the current development plans. The second and third scenarios constitute supply management measures (SMM) which consider different levels of improvements in the fuel economy of the vehicle fleet and reduced carbon emission intensity in electricity generation through increased share of renewable energy use. The fourth and fifth scenarios consider travel demand management (TDM) policies that include different levels of transport cost increase, and trip length reduction. Finally, the last two scenarios include integrated scenarios that are composed of the SMM and TDM options. In detail, compared to the BAU scenario, integrated scenario considers (1) a 10% improvement in the fuel economy of the vehicles, (2) a 10% reduction in the emission intensity of electricity generation, (3) a 30% increase in the transportation cost, and (4) a 15% reduction in the trip lengths. Under the BAU scenario, the SD model shows that energy consumption per capita from passenger trips will increase from 183 liters of oil equivalent in 2016 to 315 liters of oil equivalent in 2025 while the associated CO2 emissions per capita will increase from 460 kg in 2016 to 807 kg in 2025. To combat this dramatic growth, the findings indicate that the ambitious integrated scenario achieves the lowest energy consumption and CO2 emissions by offering a 33.5% expected reduction in total energy consumption and a 32.8% expected reduction in total CO2 emissions. Highlights • Development of system dynamics model for Istanbul passenger transport network• Several supply-side, demand-side, and integrated policy scenarios are generated using cost, emission, and trip-related parameters• Policies are evaluated based on transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions for Istanbul until 2025.• Integrated policies perform the best and lead to nearly one-third of energy and carbon...

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Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity

Cited by 54 publications

References 27 publications

A Multi-Tier Approach to Estimate Energy Efficiency in Urban Passenger Mobility

A Multi-Tier Approach to Estimate Energy Efficiency in Urban Passenger Mobility

Investigating Low-Carbon City: Empirical Study of Shanghai

Impact assessment of supply-side and demand-side policies on energy consumption and CO2 emissions from urban passenger transportation: The case of Istanbul

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