Effectiveness of Penalties for Lockdown Violations During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Germany

Chae, Seung Hoon; Park, Hyung Jun

doi:10.2105/ajph.2020.305903

Cited by 31 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…A further potential explanation for the differences between the study by Maneck et al and our data could be that in Bavaria lockdown measures beginning on March 20, 2020 were stronger than in other states, e.g., by imposing penalties and high monetary fines for violations of lockdown policy. This may have contributed to a different behavior of the population and therefore to regional differences in both spread of the disease as well as negative side effects of the lockdown measures, which are not apparent if looking on federal data (21).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Incidence of Perforated Appendicitis in Children During COVID-19 Pandemic in a Bavarian Multi-Center Study

et al. 2021

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Introduction: Since early 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic and statutory preventive reorganization of treatment capacities with cancellation of elective surgery as well as curfew regulations led to vastly decreased utilization of primary health care.Materials and Methods: To assess whether there are negative effects on pediatric acute care in Bavaria during the spring 2020 lockdown a state-wide retrospective multi-center study was performed to analyze the rate of perforated appendicitis during lockdown. Children who have been operated on during the corresponding period in 2018/19 served as control group.Results: Overall, 514 patients (292 boys, 222 girls) were included (2020: 176 patients; 2019: 181 patients; 2018: 157 patients). Median age was 11.2 years. Four hundred thirty-nine patients (85.4%) underwent laparoscopic surgery, 69 (13.4%) open surgery and 1.2% underwent conversion from laparoscopic to open surgery. In 2020 a perforation rate of 27.8% (49/176 patients) was found, in 2018–2019 perforation rate was 20.7% (70/338 patients, p = 0.0359, Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel-Test). Subgroup analysis showed that in younger patients (≤ 11.2 years), in 2020 perforation rate was significantly higher with 37.6% (32/85 patients), while 22.2% (39/176) in 2018/2019 (p = 0.014, Fisher's exact test).In boys perforation rate was significantly higher in 2020 with 35.0% (35/100 patients) compared to 21.4% in 2018–2019 (p = 0.0165, Fisher's exact test).Conclusion: During the period of curfew regulations in Bavaria the rate of perforated appendicitis in childhood increased significantly, especially in younger children and boys. Potentially this has to be attributed to delayed presentation to pediatric surgery care. Because of potential long-term sequelae of perforated appendicitis these adverse effects during curfew have to be taken into account for future political decision making to ensure reasonable patient care and avoid collateral damage in near-future or on-going pandemic situations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Incidence of Perforated Appendicitis in Children During COVID-19 Pandemic in a Bavarian Multi-Center Study

et al. 2021

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“…Strict penalty [35] Some form of punishment or fine is imposed on several conditions, namely, fleeing quarantine, violating lockdown, incompliance with the government order, not wearing mask at public areas, and spreading fake news…”

Section: Governance/ Institutionalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Influencing Asia-Pacific Countries’ Success Level in Curbing COVID-19: A Review Using a Social–Ecological System (SES) Framework

Ling¹,

Suhud²,

Leng³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Little attention has been paid to the impacts of institutional–human–environment dimen-sions on the outcome of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) abatement. Through the diagnosticsocial–ecological system (SES) framework, this review paper aimed to investigate what and howthe multifaceted social, physical, and governance factors affected the success level of seven selectedAsia-Pacific countries (namely, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, andNew Zealand) in combatting COVID-19. Drawing on statistical data from the Our World In Data web-site, we measured the COVID-19 severity or abatement success level of the countries on the basis ofcumulative positive cases, average daily cases, and mortality rates for the period of 1 February 2020to 30 June 2020. A qualitative content analysis using three codes, i.e., present (P), partially present(PP), and absent (A) for each SES attribute, as well as score calculation and rank ordering for govern-ment response effectiveness and the abatement success level across the countries, was undertaken.Not only did the standard coding process ensure data comparability but the data were deemedsubstantially reliable with Cohen’s kappa of 0.76. Among 13 attributes of the SES factors, highfacility adequacy, comprehensive COVID-19 testing policies, strict lockdown measures, imposition ofpenalty, and the high trust level towards the government seemed to be significant in determiningthe COVID-19 severity in a country. The results show that Vietnam (ranked first) and New Zealand(ranked second), with a high presence of attributes/design principles contributing to high-levelgovernment stringency and health and containment indices, successfully controlled the virus, whileIndonesia (ranked seventh) and Japan (ranked sixth), associated with the low presence of designprinciples, were deemed least successful. Two lessons can be drawn: (i) having high number of P forSES attributes does not always mean a panacea for the pandemic; however, it would be detrimentalto a country if it lacked them severely, and (ii) some attributes (mostly from the governance factor)may carry higher weightage towards explaining the success level. This comparative study providingan overview of critical SES attributes in relation to COVID-19 offers novel policy insights, thushelping policymakers devise more strategic, coordinated measures, particularly for effective countrypreparedness and response in addressing the current and the future health crisis.

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“…An additional approach is to provide an accurate and current picture of the risk of contracting the disease. Second, public health policy that creates costs for noncompliers may serve to shift some of the externalities back on to the originator (as was the case with mask ordinances during the 1918 Flu [4] and fines imposed for noncompliance with measures aimed at limiting SARS-CoV-2 spread in some countries [56,57]). Third, public health interventions should engage at the level of the community.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individually optimal choices can be collectively disastrous in COVID-19 disease control

Stoddard¹,

Egeren

Johnson

et al. 2021

BMC Public Health

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Background The word ‘pandemic’ conjures dystopian images of bodies stacked in the streets and societies on the brink of collapse. Despite this frightening picture, denialism and noncompliance with public health measures are common in the historical record, for example during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or the 2015 Ebola epidemic. The unique characteristics of SARS-CoV-2—its high basic reproduction number (R0), time-limited natural immunity and considerable potential for asymptomatic spread—exacerbate the public health repercussions of noncompliance with interventions (such as vaccines and masks) to limit disease transmission. Our work explores the rationality and impact of noncompliance with measures aimed at limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Methods In this work, we used game theory to explore when noncompliance confers a perceived benefit to individuals. We then used epidemiological modeling to predict the impact of noncompliance on control of SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating that the presence of a noncompliant subpopulation prevents suppression of disease spread. Results Our modeling demonstrates that noncompliance is a Nash equilibrium under a broad set of conditions and that the existence of a noncompliant population can result in extensive endemic disease in the long-term after a return to pre-pandemic social and economic activity. Endemic disease poses a threat for both compliant and noncompliant individuals; all community members are protected if complete suppression is achieved, which is only possible with a high degree of compliance. For interventions that are highly effective at preventing disease spread, however, the consequences of noncompliance are borne disproportionately by noncompliant individuals. Conclusions In sum, our work demonstrates the limits of free-market approaches to compliance with disease control measures during a pandemic. The act of noncompliance with disease intervention measures creates a negative externality, rendering suppression of SARS-CoV-2 spread ineffective. Our work underscores the importance of developing effective strategies for prophylaxis through public health measures aimed at complete suppression and the need to focus on compliance at a population level.

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Effectiveness of Penalties for Lockdown Violations During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Germany

Cited by 31 publications

References 14 publications

Increased Incidence of Perforated Appendicitis in Children During COVID-19 Pandemic in a Bavarian Multi-Center Study

Increased Incidence of Perforated Appendicitis in Children During COVID-19 Pandemic in a Bavarian Multi-Center Study

Factors Influencing Asia-Pacific Countries’ Success Level in Curbing COVID-19: A Review Using a Social–Ecological System (SES) Framework

Individually optimal choices can be collectively disastrous in COVID-19 disease control

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