[Objective] This study investigated the applicability of a 3-m zigzag walk test for the
prediction of falls and examined the relationships among fall history, the 3-m zigzag walk
test, 10-m walk, and age. [Subjects] A total of 50 elderly individuals (23 males and 27
females) aged 65 and over, who were able to walk independently, were studied. [Methods]
Four poles made of PET bottles were placed on a 3-m walkway in a straight line to create a
zigzag course, and the time needed to walk it was measured. The best results on days 1 and
2 were adopted for the fall and no-fall groups, and intra-rater reproducibility was
evaluated by calculating the intra-class correlation coefficient and performing the paired
t-test. For comparison of the time needed to walk the zigzag between the 2 groups, the
unpaired t-test was performed. The relationships between the times needed to walk the 3-m
zigzag and 10 m and age were analyzed by calculating the correlation coefficient with fall
history as the dependent variable, in multiple logistic regression analysis with the times
needed to walk the 3-m zigzag and 10 m and age as independent variables. For the optimal
classification of the fall and no-fall groups, cutoffs were calculated based on the ROC
curve. [Results] The paired t-test results did not show differences between measurements,
and the ICC was 0.97 in the fall, and 0.94 in the no-fall groups. The fall group needed
significantly more time than the no-fall group to walk the 3-m zigzag. Further, the
Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient revealed a significant correlation between
the times needed to walk the 3-m zigzag and 10 m, while no correlation was observed
between the time needed to walk the 3-m zigzag and age (r=0.225). The time needed to walk
the 3-m zigzag was extracted as a factor associated with fall history in multiple logistic
regression analysis, with an odds ratio of 0.377. Its significance as a variable was
p<0.01. In the Hosmer-Lemeshow test of the study model, the rate of discrimination
between the predicted and actual values was 82.0%. [Conclusion] The cutoff time to walk
the 3-m zigzag was estimated to be 10.5 seconds, suggesting that this model may be a valid
index for the prediction of falls.