Effects of a red card on goal-scoring in World Cup football matches

Abstract

We examine the effect of the sending-off of a player on the goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up. Keywords Association football • Goal-scoring • Red card • World Cup football matches 1 Introduction A red card in association football results in the sending-off of a player. A player receives a red card after committing either a serious foul or after misconduct. A B Jan C. van Ours

Evaluating the pinnacle of football match key statistics as in‐play information for determining the match outcome of Europe's foremost leagues

“…This confirmation strengthens the validity of our approach and the implications of our findings. The study resonates with and expands upon the work of prominent researchers in the field (e.g., Červený, van Ours, and van Tuijl 2016; Filetti et al. 2017; Pappalardo et al.…”

“…For instance, this strategy has been utilized by Albanese et al. (2020), Cervený, van Ours, and van Tuijl (2018), and Mechtel et al. (2011).…”

“…Notably, debt levels were not found to significantly affect football clubs' efficiency. Červený, van Ours, and van Tuijl (2016) investigated the effect of player ejections on goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014). Using a mixed proportional hazard framework, they found red cards decrease the sanctioned team's goal-scoring rate and potentially increase the opponent's rate.…”

“…Other scholars have employed a comparable methodology, incorporating data on the duration left at the moment of red card issuance. For instance, this strategy has been utilized by Albanese et al (2020), Cervený, van Ours, and van Tuijl (2018), and Mechtel et al (2011. Furthermore, while there is evidence from studies (Brooks, Kerr, and Guttag 2016;Decroos et al 2019;Memmert 2021;Pappalardo et al 2019aPappalardo et al , 2019b suggesting that in-play information during football matches can provide valuable insights into team performance, there is a scarcity of comprehensive research that thoroughly examines key match statistics.…”

Effect of COVID-19 on Key Performance Indicators of Spanish Professional Soccer League

“…Additionally, notable variances emerged between winning, drawing, and losing clubs across yellows, reds, attempts (total, on goal, off goal), dives, and passes [ 1 , 3 , 10 , 38 ]. Reds, on-goal efforts, and off-goal attempts displayed very high observed power, while rest showed good levels.…”