Effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on prices and affordability of soft drinks in Chile: A time series analysis

Cuadrado, Cristóbal; Dunstan, Jocelyn; Silva-Illanes, Nicolás; Mirelman, Andrew; Nakamura, Ryota; Suhrcke, Marc

doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.112708

Cited by 31 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…First, we were unable to test the causal effect of the Law's implementation on the use of NNSs in products. We cannot discount a prior trend driven by other policies, for example, the increase in the tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in 2014 ( 35 ), or a growing concern about sugar consumption, which could also impact food reformulation. In Colombia the amount of total sugars in beverages decreased and the proportion of beverages sweetened with NNSs increased between 2016 and 2018 (from 33 to 64%) without mandatory policies ( 36 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the Use of Non-nutritive Sweeteners in the Chilean Food and Beverage Supply After the Implementation of the Food Labeling and Advertising Law

et al. 2021

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Reductions on the sugars content of the food supply have been described after the initial implementation Chilean Labeling Law, but it is unclear if sugars were replaced by non-caloric sweeteners (NNS). We evaluated changes in the NNSs use in foods and beverages after the initial implementation of the labeling law. We used longitudinal data on packaged foods and beverages collected in six major supermarkets and three candy distributors in Santiago, Chile, in January–February 2015/2016 and in January–February 2017. We included in the analysis beverages, dairy-based beverages, yogurts, breakfast cereals, desserts and ice creams, candies and sweet confectioneries, and sweet spreads with a market share ≥1% of their food groups (n = 999). We compared the use of any NNS, the number of different NNSs used, and the combined use of NNSs and ingredients adding sugars using non-parametric tests for matched samples. We evaluated the association between a reduction in sugars and starting NNS use in the post-implementation period using negative binomial regression. The use of any NNS increased from 37.9 to 43.6% (p < 0.001) after the law's implementation, NNSs increased among beverages, dairy-based beverages, yogurts, and desserts and ice creams (p < 0.05), driven mostly by increases in sucralose and stevia use (p < 0.05). We found that reformulated products that reduced the amount of sugars below the law's cutoff were more likely to start using an NNS in the post-implementation period (prevalence ratio: 12.1; 95%CI: 7.2–20.2; p < 0.001). Our results suggest that NNSs likely replaced sugars after the initial implementation of the law. Further analyses should explore how these changes may impact NNS consumption.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the Use of Non-nutritive Sweeteners in the Chilean Food and Beverage Supply After the Implementation of the Food Labeling and Advertising Law

et al. 2021

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“…In the final step, an ARIMAX model, the initial ARIMA model with additional regressors or exogenous variables corresponding to announcement and implementation of the legislation, was estimated for the entire time series to identify the intervention effect of both the law announcement and enactment (step 3). This approach has been previously reported [25][26][27]. In this study, R studio version 1.1.456 based on R version 3.5.1 was used to fit the ARIMA and ARIMAX models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing The Impact of A Restrictive Opioid Prescribing Law in West Virginia

Sedney

Khodaverdi

Pollini

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The Opioid Reduction Act (SB 273) took effect in West Virginia in June 2018. This legislation limited ongoing chronic opioid prescriptions to 30 days’ supply, and first-time opioid prescriptions to 7 days’ supply for surgeons and 3 days’ for emergency rooms and dentists. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of this legislation on reducing opioid prescriptions in West Virginia, with the goal of informing future similar policy efforts. Methods: Data were requested from the state Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP) including overall number of opioid prescriptions, number of first-time opioid prescriptions, average daily morphine milligram equivalents (MME) and prescription duration (expressed as “day’s supply”) given to adults during the 64 week time periods before and after legislation enactment. Statistical analysis was done utilizing an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) interrupted time series analysis to assess impact of both legislation announcement and enactment while controlling secular trends and considering autocorrelation trends. Benzodiazepine prescriptions were utilized as a control.Results: Our analysis demonstrates a statistically significant decrease in overall state opioid prescribing as well as average daily MME associated with the date of the legislation’s enactment when considering serial correlation in the time series and accounting for pre-intervention trends. There was no such association found with benzodiazepine prescriptions.Conclusion: Results of the current study suggest that SB 273 was associated with an average 22.1% decrease of overall opioid prescriptions and a small overall decrease of average daily MME relative to the date of legislative implementation in West Virginia. There was, however, no association of the legislation on first-time opioid prescriptions or days’ supply of opioid medication, and all variables were trending downward prior to implementation of SB 273. The control demonstrated no relationship to the law.

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“…There is evidence from different countries that taxes fully passed to consumers, not only for SSB, but also for alcohol and tobacco. Although there is little evidence in Chile of pass through prices, a recent paper showed that the SSB tax rate increase implemented in 2014 was effective to increase price, for carbonates price increases exceeded the tax change [ 46 ]. Expected consumption would in general decrease after the tax (based on own price elasticities) but as taxes are applied to all labeled food and beverages, substitutions or complementariness are plausible and expected consumption after the tax for each group can change.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impacts on food purchases and tax revenues of a tax based on Chile’s nutrient profiling model

2021

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Background In June 2016, Chile implemented the Law of Food Labelling and Advertising, which included a mandatory front-of-pack warning labels on food and beverages high in added sugar, saturated fat, sodium or energy density, restrictions on child-directed marketing and on the promotion and sales of these products in schools. The regulation does not include taxes although Chile had implemented a tiered tax on SSBs two years before this law was implemented. Therefore, the objective of the study was to simulate the impact of taxing food and beverages based on the cutoff’s points for warning labels on purchases and revenues. Methods We derived price elasticities using the linear approximation of the almost ideal demand system for six groups of labeled food and beverages (with a warning label based on the regulation) and unlabeled (with no warning label): 1) unlabeled beverages, 2) labeled beverages, 3) unlabeled cereal based products, 4) labeled cereal based products, 5) labeled meat and fish and 6) labeled sweet snacks and desserts. The study used data on household food beverage purchases from the Kantar WorldPanel Chile and Euromonitor sales to adjust the Kantar elasticity results to the national average. We estimated revenues under three tax scenarios for all labeled food and beverages: 10%, 20%, 30% of the final price excluding taxes. Results Except for labeled fish and meat, all food and beverage groups were price elastic. After accounting for a reduction in consumption after the taxes, economic and population growth, revenues for all groups could reach between 457 million USD to 1.3 billion USD. These results based on the much larger tax base of these labeled “high in added sugar, salt or saturated fat or energy density” foods and beverages is much larger. Conclusion This fiscal package could be implemented in countries with warning labels to enhance health and welfare. The Chilean warning label front-of-the-package system provides an important guide for countries considering policies to reduce diet-related non communicable diseases, including obesity. The fiscal policy impact alone, as shown here for Chile, will be highly impactful in reducing ultra-processed food intake and generating revenues.

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Effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on prices and affordability of soft drinks in Chile: A time series analysis

Cited by 31 publications

References 41 publications

Changes in the Use of Non-nutritive Sweeteners in the Chilean Food and Beverage Supply After the Implementation of the Food Labeling and Advertising Law

Changes in the Use of Non-nutritive Sweeteners in the Chilean Food and Beverage Supply After the Implementation of the Food Labeling and Advertising Law

Assessing The Impact of A Restrictive Opioid Prescribing Law in West Virginia

The impacts on food purchases and tax revenues of a tax based on Chile’s nutrient profiling model

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