Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural Mediterranean watershed in Northern Spain

Oduor, Brian Omondi; Campo‐Bescós, Miguel Ángel; Lana-Renault, Noemí; Casalí, Javier

doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108378

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Under climate change, the annual average flow from the basin in southern Italy is projected to decrease by 20% in 2030-2059 [29]. Similar projections (28 to 52% decrease in flow in 2070-2100) are reported in a northern Spain catchment [30]. The Eerste River in South Africa will also observe a decrease in water availability by 8-18% by the end of the century [31].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 57%

Assessing the Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on the Hydrologic Cycle Using the SWAT Model in the Mun River Basin in Northeast Thailand

Khadka,

Babel,

Kamalamma

2023

Water

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Climate change (CC) and land-use change (LUC) will alter a basin’s hydrological processes and water balance. Quantifying their significance is imperative in formulating appropriate countermeasures and management plans. This study assesses projected changes in hydrological variables under CC and LUC scenarios to provide multi-dimensional insight into water balance relevant to an agricultural watershed in Northeast Thailand. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate hydrological variables (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, and water yield) for the baseline (1981–2010) and the near-future (2021–2050) after calibrating the model. CC projections considering the CMIP6 model ensemble for the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) show the annual rainfall may not change significantly (0.5% increase compared to baseline). However, the surface runoff will likely increase by 33% due to the projected increase in rainfall intensity and extremes. The increase in urban areas due to LUC for the business as usual (BAU) scenario is also expected to boost surface runoff by 38–87%. Similarly, the LUC scenario with forest expansion will increase evapotranspiration by up to 1.3%. While CC is anticipated to raise water yield by 11%, LUC may reduce it by 6%. Under the combined scenario, the yield is expected to increase by 8%, indicating CC as the dominating driver. The results show that although CC governs the runoff from the basin, land-use change will also impact flows at a monthly scale. Importantly, soil moisture in the future will decrease (8–9%) under both stressors, which will reverberate in the basin’s agricultural livelihood and socioeconomic settings unless the appropriate adaptation measures are implemented.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 57%

Assessing the Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on the Hydrologic Cycle Using the SWAT Model in the Mun River Basin in Northeast Thailand

Khadka,

Babel,

Kamalamma

2023

Water

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“…The substantial increase in agricultural water demand necessitates prompt action. Implementing sustainable agricultural practices, promoting crop diversification, and embracing water-efficient irrigation methods like drip irrigation and precision farming, are vital to mitigating the potential impacts on crop yields and food security (Oduor et al, 2023). Conducting a comprehensive assessment of vulnerable crops in the study area can help guide targeted interventions, ultimately enhancing resilience and sustainability in the face of evolving environmental conditions.…”

Section: Long-term Impact Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Streamflow Response to Agricultural Land Expansion in the Thiba River Watershed in Kenya

Oduor,

Mutua,

Gathagu

et al. 2023

A&R

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The expansion of agricultural lands in the Thiba River watershed, particularly in the Mwea Irrigation Scheme and other parts of the watershed, has resulted in excessive water abstraction from the Thiba River, thereby reducing its flow and affecting its downstream users. This study aimed to evaluate the potential impacts of the expansion of agricultural lands on the streamflow regime of the Thiba River and its impact on the downstream users by comparing the 2004 and 2014 land uses and simulating the long-term impact using the HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-HMS models. The results showed a considerable decline in the streamflow in the dry months compared to the wet months, with increasing water abstraction trends from 2007 to 2014. The long-term impact assessment showed an average decline in streamflow in the near (2030) and far (2060) future due to land use and population changes with minimal impact from the increasing precipitation. Based on these findings, there is a need for proper water management and adaptation mechanisms to be put in place to maintain the future water supply from the Thiba River. The study's findings could assist policy and decision-makers in making informed water resource management decisions.

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“…Villa et al (2022) [18] emphasize the importance of high-resolution climate input data for estimating nitrogen leaching under climate change scenarios, while Davamani et al (2024) suggest that improved simulation models can capture local changes [19]. The impact of climate change on water resources, including nitrogen leaching and nitrate concentrations in groundwater, is still uncertain and requires further research [1,16,20,21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Nitrate Leaching and Groundwater Nitrate Dynamics Using a Holistic Approach and Med-CORDEX Climatic Models

Lyra,

Loukas,

Sidiropoulos

et al. 2024

Water

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This study presents the projected future evolution of water resource balance and nitrate pollution under various climate change scenarios and climatic models using a holistic approach. The study area is Almyros Basin and its aquifer system, located in Central Greece, Thessaly, Greece. Almyros Basin is a coastal agricultural basin and faces the exacerbation of water deficit and groundwater nitrate pollution. Using an Integrated Modeling System (IMS), which consists of the surface hydrology model (UTHBAL), the nitrate leachate model (REPIC, an R-ArcGIS-based EPIC model), the groundwater hydrology model (MODFLOW), and the nitrates’ advection, dispersion, and transport model (MT3MDS), the projected values of the variables of water quantity and quality are simulated. Nineteen climatic models from the Med-CORDEX database were bias-corrected with the Quantile Empirical Mapping method and employed to capture the variability in the simulated surface and groundwater water balance and nitrate dynamics. The findings indicate that future precipitation, runoff, and groundwater recharge will decrease while temperature and potential evapotranspiration will increase. Climate change will lead to reduced nitrogen leaching, lower groundwater levels, and persistent nitrate pollution; however, it will be accompanied by high variability and uncertainty, as simulations of IMS under multiple climatic models indicate.

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Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural Mediterranean watershed in Northern Spain

Cited by 9 publications

References 62 publications

Assessing the Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on the Hydrologic Cycle Using the SWAT Model in the Mun River Basin in Northeast Thailand

Assessing the Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on the Hydrologic Cycle Using the SWAT Model in the Mun River Basin in Northeast Thailand

Evaluation of the Streamflow Response to Agricultural Land Expansion in the Thiba River Watershed in Kenya

Climate Change Impacts on Nitrate Leaching and Groundwater Nitrate Dynamics Using a Holistic Approach and Med-CORDEX Climatic Models

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