Effects of climate, species interactions, and dispersal on decadal colonization and extinction rates of Iberian tree species

García‐Valdés, Raúl; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Zavala, Miguel Á.; Purves, Drew W.; Araújo, Miguel B.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.04.003

Cited by 25 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Oaks and pines often co-occur in Mediterranean forests and a large body of literature has tried to explain this association (Zavala & Zea, 2004;G omez-Aparicio et al, 2011;Zavala et al, 2011;Sheffer, 2012;Garc ıa-Vald es et al, 2015). Generally, pines replace oaks with increasing aridity conditions (Sheffer, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Water stress is expected to influence oak growth, reproduction and establishment negatively (Ogaya & Peñuelas, 2007;Peñuelas et al, 2018), and possibly to a larger extent than for the other plant types (Peñuelas et al, 2001;Garc ıa-Vald es et al, 2015;Pausas et al, 2016). Water stress is expected to influence oak growth, reproduction and establishment negatively (Ogaya & Peñuelas, 2007;Peñuelas et al, 2018), and possibly to a larger extent than for the other plant types (Peñuelas et al, 2001;Garc ıa-Vald es et al, 2015;Pausas et al, 2016).…”

Section: Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Increased aridity drives post‐fire recovery of Mediterranean forests towards open shrublands

et al. 2019

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Summary Recent observations suggest that repeated fires could drive Mediterranean forests to shrublands, hosting flammable vegetation that regrows quickly after fire. This feedback supposedly favours shrubland persistence and may be strengthened in the future by predicted increased aridity. An assessment was made of how fires and aridity in combination modulated the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems and whether the feedback could be strong enough to maintain shrubland as an alternative stable state to forest. A model was developed for vegetation dynamics, including stochastic fires and different plant fire‐responses. Parameters were calibrated using observational data from a period up to 100 yr ago, from 77 sites with and without fires in Southeast Spain and Southern France. The forest state was resilient to the separate impact of fires and increased aridity. However, water stress could convert forests into open shrublands by hampering post‐fire recovery, with a possible tipping point at intermediate aridity. Projected increases in aridity may reduce the resilience of Mediterranean forests against fires and drive post‐fire ecosystem dynamics toward open shrubland. The main effect of increased aridity is the limitation of post‐fire recovery. Including plant fire‐responses is thus fundamental when modelling the fate of Mediterranean‐type vegetation under climate‐change scenarios.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased aridity drives post‐fire recovery of Mediterranean forests towards open shrublands

et al. 2019

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“…Ruosch et al ., ). Our combination of biogeographical and dendroecological information with process‐based modeled growth complements previous findings based only on niche‐based models (Lloret et al ., ; Serra‐Díaz et al ., ; García‐Valdés et al ., ) by demonstrating the presence of contrasting responses to observed and forecasted climate trends among tree populations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process‐based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear‐edges

Sánchez‐Salguero

Camarero

Gutiérrez

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

142

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Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought-prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear-edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear-edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree-ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite growth model and climate-growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear-edge. By contrast, growth of high-elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of -10.7% and -16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear-edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear-edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions.

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“…It is worth noting that the quantification of algorithmic complexity is independent of the modelling methodology. That is, the framework implemented herein with correlative species distributions models, could also be easily implemented with alternative mechanistic approaches for modelling species distributions (e.g., Fordham et al, 2013;García-Valdés et al, 2015).…”

Section: Computational Complexitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models

García‐Callejas

Araújo

2016

Ecological Modelling

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Effects of climate, species interactions, and dispersal on decadal colonization and extinction rates of Iberian tree species

Cited by 25 publications

References 67 publications

Increased aridity drives post‐fire recovery of Mediterranean forests towards open shrublands

Increased aridity drives post‐fire recovery of Mediterranean forests towards open shrublands

Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process‐based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear‐edges

The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models

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