Effects of Elevated Air Temperature and CO2 on Maize Production and Water Use Efficiency under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Shaanxi Province, China

Abstract

The ongoing global warming and changing patterns of precipitation have significant implications for crop yields. Process-based models are the most commonly used method to assess the impacts of projected climate changes on crop yields. In this study, the crop-environment resource synthesis (CERES)-Maize 4.6.7 model was used to project the maize crop yield in the Shaanxi Province of China over future periods. In this context, the downscaled ensemble projections of 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) were used as input for the calibrated CERES-Maize model. Results showed a negative correlation between temperature and maize yield in the study area. It is expected that each 1.0 °C rise in seasonal temperature will cause up to a 9% decrease in the yield. However, the influence of CO2 fertilization showed a positive response, as witnessed by the increase in the crop yield. With CO2 fertilization, the average increase in the maize crop yield compared to without CO2 fertilization per three decades was 10.5%, 11.6%, TA7.8%, and 6.5% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. An elevated CO2 concentration showed a pronounced positive impact on the rain-fed maize yield compared to the irrigated maize yield. The average water use efficiency (WUE) was better at elevated CO2 concentrations and improved by 7–21% relative to the without CO2 fertilization of the WUE. Therefore, future climate changes with elevated CO2 are expected to be favorable for maize yields in the Shaanxi Province of China, and farmers can expect further benefits in the future from growing maize.

Effect of Temperature on Sowing Dates of Wheat under Arid and Semi-Arid Climatic Regions and Impact Quantification of Climate Change through Mechanistic Modeling with Evidence from Field

“…Hot/Wet, Middle, Cool/Wet, and Cool/Dry conditions would cause a yield reduction of 37.92%, 35.54%, 26.6%, and 24.72%, respectively. These reductions are higher in the arid climate than in the semi-arid climate due to warmer climatic conditions in the arid region [43][44][45][46][47].…”

Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

“…Scholars have used different models to study the impacts of changes in key regional climatic indicators on main crop yields. For example, the crop model was used to analyze the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation in different regions on the future main crop yields (e.g., wheat and maize) [15][16][17]; the Ricardian model was used to analyze the sensitivity of different crop yields to marginal changes in response to different climatic factors [18][19][20]; the Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) was used to analyze the impacts of climate change in different regions on the economic costs of food production [21]; and the "meteorological output" model [22] was used to separate crop output into three parts-technical output, meteorological output, and random output-and to evaluate the impacts of meteorological factor fluctuations on output variations [23,24]. Studies on the impacts of climate change on food production based on these models are limited as only single and independent climatic factors are evaluated, and the interaction between climatic factors and agricultural economic factors is not considered.…”

Effects of Fallow Management Practices on Soil Water, Crop Yield and Water Use Efficiency in Winter Wheat Monoculture System: A Meta-Analysis

“…Climate variables might bring positive or negative influences on crop yield ( Saddique et al, 2020 ). In Pacific Northwest (United States), most of the water loss occurs in fallow land in a dry layer of 10 cm or more in thickness, while large variations in diurnal temperature occur in the upper 15 cm of soil may affect the dry layer vapor flow ( Papendick et al, 1973 ).…”