Effects of future sea-level rise on tidal processes on the Patagonian Shelf

Carless, Stacey; Green, J.A. Mattias; Pelling, Holly E.; Wilmes, Sophie-Berenice

doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2016.07.007

Cited by 36 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…In Mar del Plata, we find a lower increase of the MLWs and a greater decrease of the MHWs than in Buenos Aires, and there is no correlation between the changes in the tides and the river runoff as well as between the Residual percentiles series and extreme river discharge into the RdlP. Therefore, the observed tidal changes are produced by a different factor than in Buenos Aires such as changes in the thermohaline structure of the Brazil/Malvinas confluence region or the rise of the MSL, although for the latter studies have shown that greater increases of the MSL are required to produce significant changes in the tides (Luz Clara et al, 2015;Carless et al, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Besides the seasonal variability of the Brazil/Malvinas confluence region, Combes and Matano (2014) reported a southward trend of this confluence region over the last decade of the twentieth century due to a weakening of the Malvinas current. In addition, the simulations performed by Carless et al (2016) under an increased stratification scenario over the Patagonian shelf showed a decrease of 15 cm on average of the M2 amplitude along the Argentinian coasts. Therefore, changes in stratification could be responsible for the observed trends in both tidal levels and constituents.…”

Section: Tidal Analysismentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Tidal changes obtained from simulations under SLR scenarios depend not only on the SLR scenario and its spatial variability, but also on the stratification scheme and on whether land is allowed to flood (Pickering et al, 2012;Carless et al, 2016). Simulations of high end SLR scenarios (i.e., above 1 m) over the Patagonian shelf performed by Carless et al (2016) and Luz Clara et al (2015) showed an increase of the M2 amplitude in the coastal region of Mar del Plata and a decrease of its phase. We observe the opposite pattern during the last 40 years at this location.…”

Section: Tidal Analysismentioning

confidence: 96%

“…In addition, studies comprising model simulations of tidal evolution under different SLR scenarios reported that greater rises of water depth are needed in order to produce significant changes in the tides (see e.g., Müller et al, 2011;Pickering et al, 2012Pickering et al, , 2017Carless et al, 2016). Tidal changes obtained from simulations under SLR scenarios depend not only on the SLR scenario and its spatial variability, but also on the stratification scheme and on whether land is allowed to flood (Pickering et al, 2012;Carless et al, 2016). Simulations of high end SLR scenarios (i.e., above 1 m) over the Patagonian shelf performed by Carless et al (2016) and Luz Clara et al (2015) showed an increase of the M2 amplitude in the coastal region of Mar del Plata and a decrease of its phase.…”

Section: Tidal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long-Term Trends and Variability of Water Levels and Tides in Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata, Argentina

Santamaria-Aguilar¹,

Schuerch

Vafeidis³

et al. 2017

Front. Mar. Sci.

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We present an analysis of the long-term trends and variability of extreme water and tidal levels and the main tidal constituents using long-term records from two tide gauges in the wider region of the Rio de la Plata estuary: Buenos Aires (1905Aires ( -2013 and Mar del Plata (1956. We find significant long-term trends in both tidal levels and the main tidal constituents (M2, S2, K1, O1, and the overtide M4) from a running harmonic analysis in both locations. The tidal range decreased on average 0.63 mm y −1 , as a result of an increase of the low water levels and a decrease of the high water levels. We also find a secular decrease in the amplitude of the semi-diurnal constituents and an increase of the diurnal ones, but of different magnitudes at each location, which suggests that different processes are producing these changes. In Buenos Aires, an increase of river discharge into the estuary seems to reduce the tidal range by hampering the propagation of the tidal wave into the estuary, whereas no influence of river discharge on water and tidal levels can be detected in Mar del Plata. We believe that other factors such as thermohaline changes or the rise of mean sea-level may be responsible for the observed tidal range decrease. Despite the tidal long-term trends, we find no significant trends in the meteorological component of the tide-gauge records other than an increase in the mean sea-level. In addition, we explore teleconnections between the variability of the meteorological component of the tide-gauge records and climate drivers.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Tidal Analysismentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Tidal Analysismentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Tidal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Long-Term Trends and Variability of Water Levels and Tides in Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata, Argentina

Santamaria-Aguilar¹,

Schuerch

Vafeidis³

et al. 2017

Front. Mar. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Both sea level and the areal extent of shelf‐seas have changed greatly over Earth's history, with associated changes in the tides (see e.g., Green & Huber, for the Eocene (∼55 My ago), and Green et al, for tidal changes over the 250 My). However, investigations of the impact of sea level changes on tides have mostly focused on the Last Glacial Maximum (∼ 25,000 years ago; “LGM” hereafter; e.g., Egbert et al, ; Green, ; Griffiths & Peltier, ; Wilmes & Green, ) or on regional responses to future sea level rise (Carless et al, ; Clara et al, ; Pelling & Green, ; Pickering et al, ; Ward et al, ). Müller et al () attempt to model observed secular changes in the global tides during the late 20th and early 21st century and Pickering et al () simulate tidal responses to sea level increases expected to occur in the next centuries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Tidal Impacts of Large‐Scale Ice Sheet Collapses

et al. 2017

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Recent studies show that the glaciers draining both the West Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheets are experiencing an accelerated ice loss, highlighting the possibility of large‐scale ice sheet retreat and sea level rise in the coming centuries and millennia. These sea level changes would vary spatially and could significantly alter global tides as the latter are highly dependent on bathymetry (or water column thickness under ice shelves) and basin shape. This paper investigates how the principal semidiurnal (M2) tidal amplitudes and energy dissipation respond to the nonuniform sea level changes induced by complete ice sheet collapses. The sea level changes are calculated using gravitationally self‐consistent sea level theory, and the tides are simulated using an established tidal model. Results from the simulations show global and spatially heterogeneous changes in tidal amplitudes. In addition, pronounced changes in tidal energy dissipation occur in both the open ocean and in shelf‐seas, also altering the location of tidal mixing fronts. These changes have the potential to impact ocean mixing, and hence large‐scale currents and climate patterns, and the contribution of shelf‐sea to the global carbon cycle. The new results highlight the importance of considering changes in the tides in predictions of future climate and reconstructions of past climate phases such as the Last Interglacial.

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Impact of sea level rise on tidal range in Chesapeake and Delaware Bays

2017

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Coastal inundation is affected not only by rising mean sea level but also by changing tides. A numerical model is developed to investigate how sea level rise and coastline changes may impact tides in two coastal‐plain estuaries, Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay. Despite their different tidal characteristics, the two estuaries display similar responses to the sea level rise and shoreline management scenarios. When hypothetic sea walls are erected at the present coastline to prevent low‐lying land from flooding, tidal range increases, with greater amplification in the upper part of the two estuaries. When low‐lying land is allowed to become permanently inundated by higher sea level, however, tidal range in both estuaries decreases. Analyses of the tidal energy budget show that the increased dissipation over the shallow water and newly inundated areas compensates for the reduced dissipation in deep water, leading to smaller tidal range. The changes in the tidal range are not proportional to the changes in the mean sea level, indicating a nonlinear tidal response to sea level rise. The ratio of tidal range change to sea level rise varies between −0.05 and 0.1 in Chesapeake Bay and between −0.2 and 0.25 in Delaware Bay. The model results suggest a potential adaptation strategy that uses inundation over low‐lying areas to reduce tidal range at up‐estuary locations.

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Effects of future sea-level rise on tidal processes on the Patagonian Shelf

Cited by 36 publications

References 36 publications

Long-Term Trends and Variability of Water Levels and Tides in Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata, Argentina

Long-Term Trends and Variability of Water Levels and Tides in Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata, Argentina

Global Tidal Impacts of Large‐Scale Ice Sheet Collapses

Impact of sea level rise on tidal range in Chesapeake and Delaware Bays

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