Invasive species cost the global economy billions of dollars each year, but ecologists have struggled to predict the risk of an introduced species naturalizing and invading. Although carefully designed experiments are needed to fully elucidate what makes some species invasive, much can be learned from unintentional experiments involving the introduction of species beyond their native ranges. Here, we assess invasion risk by linking a physiologically based species distribution model with data on the invasive success of 749 Australian acacia and eucalypt tree species that have, over more than a century, been introduced around the world. The model correctly predicts 92% of occurrences observed outside of Australia from an independent dataset. We found that invasiveness is positively associated with the projection of physiological niche volume in geographic space, thereby illustrating that species tolerant of a broader range of environmental conditions are more likely to be invasive. Species achieve this broader tolerance in different ways, meaning that the traits that define invasive success are context-specific. Hence, our study reconciles studies that have failed to identify the traits that define invasive success with the urgent and pragmatic need to predict invasive success.biological invasion | range size | physiology | ecological niche | tree invasions W hy some species perform better than others when introduced to novel regions is a question of immense theoretical and practical importance. Theoretical ecologists seek to understand the conditions that allow species to invade communities and coexist with other taxa, thereby shaping patterns of biodiversity (1, 2). Applied ecologists need to know which introduced species are most likely to establish, invade, and cause environmental damage (3). More generally, biological invasions are grand natural experiments that provide one of ecology's most profitable avenues for testing our ability to forecast the distribution of species and diversity (4).Although theoretical ecologists have made impressive progress in understanding the mediators of coexistence using invasion tests (5, 6), applied ecologists bemoan the fact that predicting the next environmental pest seems as intractable now as decades ago, when the global consequences of invasions first became apparent (7). Although many studies have deciphered the attributes of successful invaders (8), others show that invasive organisms do not differ in consistent ways from native taxa and that, if laws do determine invasiveness and invasibility, they are, at best, highly context-specific (9-11). Such uncertainty is perhaps not surprising, because the study of invasions is, by definition, complicated by historical factors. For example, increased propagule pressure and residence time increase invasive success, together often overwhelming any inherent factors that enhance or limit invasiveness (12-14). Hence, invasion biology seems resigned to accepting that a universal definition of invasibility and invasiveness is unlike...