Effects of global shocks on the evolution of an interconnected world

Abstract

As the world grows more interconnected through the flows of people, goods, and information, many challenges are becoming more difficult to address since human needs are increasingly being met through global supply chains. Global shocks (e.g., war, economic recession, pandemic) can severely disrupt these interconnections and generate cascading consequences across local to global scales. To comprehensively evaluate these consequences, it is crucial to use integrated frameworks that consider multiple interconnections and flows among coupled human and natural systems. Here we use the framework of metacoupling (human–nature interactions within as well as across adjacent and distant systems) to illustrate the effects of major global shocks on the evolution of global interconnectedness between the early 1900s and the 2010s. Based on these results we make a few actionable recommendations to reduce the negative impacts of an ongoing global shock, the COVID-19 pandemic, to promote global sustainability.

Transboundary flows in the metacoupled Anthropocene: typology, methods, and governance for global sustainability

“…6). The impacts of these shocks have also become unprecedentedly prominent as the world becomes more interconnected and interdependent (Viña and Liu 2022).…”

“…Taking a transboundary watershed system as an example, the watershed governance needs to consider closely interlinked flows (e.g., flows of surface water, groundwater, sediments, and wastewater; food flows, fertilizer runoff, and energy flows; Moreover, flow-based governance must recognize and address the new and uncertain risks posed by increasingly frequent and destructive global shocks. As the world becomes more interconnected, vulnerability to global shocks increases (Viña and Liu 2022). Current system governance tends to focus on maintaining and enhancing a few key flows in supply chains to be efficient for short-term sustainability.…”

Quantifying economic vulnerabilities induced by interdependent networks

“…Economic globalization has fostered a remarkable degree of interconnectedness among countries worldwide, giving rise to intricate and complex interdependencies within trade systems [ 1 – 4 ]. Economic interdependence through trade was long viewed as desirable due to the belief that economically interdependent countries are less likely to engage in conflict with one another [ 5 , 6 ].…”