Objectives
This study was conducted to estimate the probability of cancer-specific survival (CSS) of HCC and establish a competing risk nomogram for predicting the CSS of HCC using a large population-based cohort.
Methods
Patients diagnosed with HCC between 2004 and 2015 were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program. The CSS and overall survival (OS) were the endpoints of the study. A competing risk nomogram for predicting CSS was built with Fine and Gray’s competing risk model, and the nomogram for predicting OS was constructed with Cox proportional hazard regression models. The predictive performance of the model was tested in terms of discrimination and calibration.
Results
A total of 34,957 patients were included in the study and randomly divided into a training set and validation set at a ratio of 9:1. Multivariate analysis identified age, race, sex, surgical therapy, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, tumour diameter, and tumour staging as independent predictive factors of CSS. Additionally, marital status was identified as an independent predictive factor of OS. Using these factors, corresponding nomograms were constructed for CSS and OS. In the validation set, the concordance-index of the two nomogram models reached 0.810 and 0.750, respectively. Calibration curves revealed good consistency between the prediction of models and observed outcome. Furthermore, cumulative incidence function analysis and Kaplan-Meier analysis divided patients into four distinct risk subgroups, supporting the predictive performance of the models.
Conclusions
In this population-based analysis, we developed and validated nomograms for individualized prediction of CSS and OS in patients with HCC.