Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks

Wang, Xia; Li, Qian; Sun, Xiaodan; He, Sha; Xia, Fan; Song, Pengfei; Shao, Yiming; Wu, Jianhong; Cheke, Robert; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni

doi:10.1101/2020.04.17.20070318

Cited by 7 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…It is worth noting that many studies have demonstrated that media coverage can be considered an effective way to mitigate the spread of disease during the early stages of an outbreak [8,11,19,20]. To further examine the impact of saturation of media coverage and recovery on disease infections, we plotted the cumulative number of the infected individuals during the initial month of the outbreak with various values of α, δ, h 1 and h 2 , as shown in Fig.…”

Section: (C)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is known that, facing the emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases, news items surge in a certain period but have saturation due to the fatigue of reporting, and consequently the saturated growth of news items should be considered especially during whole epidemic outbreak. For example, with sharp the increase of COVID-19 cases in mainland China [18,19], information dissemination significantly affected on disease spread via profound psychological/behavioural changes in early 2020, while it has been exhibiting the reporting fatigue recently. Further, with the media impacts, whether the nonlinear recovery induces more complex dynamics, and the detailed contributions of saturated media impact and/or nonlinear recovery to rich dynamics or disease control remain unclear, and hence fall within the scope of this study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Complex dynamics of an epidemic model with saturated media coverage and recovery

Xiao

2022

Nonlinear Dyn

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During the outbreak of emerging infectious diseases, media coverage and medical resource play important roles in affecting the disease transmission. To investigate the effects of the saturation of media coverage and limited medical resources, we proposed a mathematical model with extra compartment of media coverage and two nonlinear functions. We theoretically and numerically investigate the dynamics of the proposed model. Given great difficulties caused by high nonlinearity in theoretical analysis, we separately considered subsystems with only nonlinear recovery or with only saturated media impact. For the model with only nonlinear recovery, we theoretically showed that backward bifurcation can occur and multiple equilibria may coexist under certain conditions in this case. Numerical simulations reveal the rich dynamic behaviors, including forward-backward bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, homoclinic bifurcation and unstable limit cycle. So the limitation of medical resources induces rich dynamics and causes much difficulties in eliminating the infectious diseases. We then investigated the dynamics of the system with only saturated media impact and concluded that saturated media impact hardly induces the complicated dynamics. Further, we parameterized the proposed model on the basis of the COVID-19 case data in mainland China and data related to news items, and estimated the basic reproduction number to be 2.86. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to quantify the relative importance of parameters in determining the cumulative number of infected individuals at the end of the first month of the outbreak. Combining with numerical analyses, we suggested that providing adequate medical resources and improving media response to infection or individuals’ response to mass media may reduce the cumulative number of the infected individuals, which mitigates the transmission dynamics during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Section: (C)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complex dynamics of an epidemic model with saturated media coverage and recovery

Xiao

2022

Nonlinear Dyn

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“…Different mathematical models have been proposed to investigate the spread and dynamics of COVID‐19 since the outbreak of COVID‐19. 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 Laxminarayan et at. 1 , 10 , 11 , 12 revealed the transmission pathways and characteristics of COVID‐19 and identified the key factors which affect the contact pattern and the total number of infections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals on the control of COVID‐19 epidemic

Wang

Guo

Gong

et al. 2022

Math Methods in App Sciences

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The ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic has posed a tremendous threat to the public and health authorities. Wuhan, as one of the cities experiencing the earliest COVID‐19 outbreak, has successfully tackled the epidemic finally. The main reason is the implementing of Fangcang shelter hospitals, which rapidly and massively scale the health system's capacity to treat COVID‐19 confirmed cases with mild symptoms. To give insights on what degree Fangcang shelter hospitals have contained COVID‐19 in Wuhan, we proposed a piecewise smooth model regarding the patient triage scheme and the bed capacities of Fangcang shelter hospitals and designated hospitals. We used data on the cumulative number of confirmed cases, recovered cases, deaths, and data on the number of hospitalized individuals in Fangcang shelter hospitals and designated hospitals in Wuhan to parameterize the targeted model. Our results showed that diminishing the bed capacity or delaying the opening time of Fangcang shelter hospitals, both would result in worsening the epidemic by increasing the total number of infectives and hospitalized individuals and the effective reproduction number . The findings demonstrated that Fangcang shelter hospitals avoided 17,013 critical infections and 17,823 total infections while it saved 7 days during the process of controlling the effective reproduction number . Our study highlighted the critical role of Fangcang shelter hospitals in curbing and eventually stopping COVID‐19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. These findings may provide a valuable reference for decision‐makers in regarding ramping up the health system capacity to isolate groups of people with mild symptoms in areas of widespread infection.

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“…In the early stage of COVID-19 epidemic, the main research focus is to assess the basic reproductive number, infection scale and the impact of population mobility on COVID-19 transmission [3-6]. With the wide spread of the epidemic, the research focus was quickly shifted to develop and evaluate the effectiveness of control measures[7-11]. The development of COVID-19 vaccinesis accelerated, but the capacity of vaccine production is limited and it may take time to make vaccine available to all the people who are willing to receive it.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Age-Specific Vaccination Strategies and Post-Vaccination Reopening Policies for COVID-19 Control Using SEIR Modeling Approach

Wang¹,

Wu²,

Tang³

2021

Preprint

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Background: As the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, it is badly needed to develop vaccination guidelines to prioritize the vaccination delivery in order to effectively stop COVID-19 epidemic and minimize the loss. Methods: We evaluated the effect of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of infections and deaths using an SEIR model, considering the age structure and social contact patterns for different age groups for each of different countries. Results: In general, the vaccination priority should be given to those younger people who are active in social contacts to minimize the number of infections; while the vaccination priority should be given to the elderly to minimize the number of deaths. But this principle may not always apply when the interaction of age structure and age-specific social contact patterns is complicated. Partially reopening schools, workplaces or households, the vaccination priority may need to be adjusted accordingly. Conclusions: Prematurely reopening social contacts could initiate a new outbreak or even a new pandemic out of control if the vaccination rate and the detection rate are not high enough. Our result suggests that it requires at least nine months of vaccination before fully reopening social contacts in order to avoid a new pandemic.

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Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks

Cited by 7 publications

References 9 publications

Complex dynamics of an epidemic model with saturated media coverage and recovery

Complex dynamics of an epidemic model with saturated media coverage and recovery

Modeling the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals on the control of COVID‐19 epidemic

Assessing Age-Specific Vaccination Strategies and Post-Vaccination Reopening Policies for COVID-19 Control Using SEIR Modeling Approach

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