Effects of Meteorological Parameters and PM10 on the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Children in China

Abstract

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a globally-prevalent infectious disease. However, few data are available on prevention measures for HFMD. The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the impacts of temperature, humidity, and air pollution, particularly levels of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter 10 micrometers (PM10), on the incidence of HFMD in a city in Eastern China. Daily morbidity, meteorological, and air pollution data for Ningbo City were collected for the period from January 2012 to December 2014. A total of 86,695 HFMD cases were enrolled in this study. We used a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution to analyze the nonlinear lag effects of daily mean temperature, daily humidity, and found significant relationships with the incidence of HFMD; in contrast, PM10 level showed no relationship to the incidence of HFMD. Our findings will facilitate the development of effective preventive measures and early forecasting of HFMD outbreaks.

Forecasting hand, foot, and mouth disease in Shenzhen based on daily level clinical data and multiple environmental factors

“…The coefficient between PM 2.5 and HFMD is -0.37 while PM10 is -0.33. Our study is not consistent with the conclusion in the previous study (10), which showed no significant relationship between PM10 and HFMD (10).…”

The effect of temperature on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China, 2010-2013: A multicity study

“…Undoubtedly, it is a key factor in the development of disease. In the first stage, we pooled the overall cumulative effect of 21 cities which showed an approximately "M"-shape which was consistent with the results in other studies (Minhang Distric: a suburban district of Shanghai; Ningbo city) [5,40]. The effect showed that the cumulative risk decreased when temperature was lower than 40th.…”

The effect of temperature on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China, 2010-2013: A multicity study

“…The epidemiological triangle emphasizes that pathogens, hosts and the environment are the three elements of disease, and that human health can be maintained unless the balance is broke. Besides, temperature can affect the survival and transmission of pathogen as well as human activities and behaviors [40][41]. Undoubtedly, it is a key factor in the development of disease.…”