We present a general framework for characterizing the ecological and societal consequences of biodiversity loss and applying it to the global avifauna. To investigate the potential ecological consequences of avian declines, we developed comprehensive databases of the status and functional roles of birds and a stochastic model for forecasting change. Overall, 21% of bird species are currently extinction-prone and 6.5% are functionally extinct, contributing negligibly to ecosystem processes. We show that a quarter or more of frugivorous and omnivorous species and one-third or more of herbivorous, piscivorous, and scavenger species are extinctionprone. Furthermore, our projections indicate that by 2100, 6 -14% of all bird species will be extinct, and 7-25% (28 -56% on oceanic islands) will be functionally extinct. Important ecosystem processes, particularly decomposition, pollination, and seed dispersal, will likely decline as a result.ecosystem services ͉ functional extinctions ͉ trophic cascades ͉ community disassembly ͉ ecological redundancy T he accelerating extinction of species (1) is the tip of the iceberg of global wildlife declines (2-5) that threaten to disrupt vital ecosystem processes and services (6). Although patterns of biodiversity loss have been explored extensively (7), their ecological implications have been the subject of few studies. These studies have been largely limited to temperate plants, microbes, and invertebrates (8). Yet ongoing reductions in vertebrate abundance and species richness are also likely to have far-reaching consequences, with diverse societal impacts, including plant extinctions , the loss of agricultural pest control, and the spread of disease. Birds are the best known major group of organisms (9), and the conservation status of all bird species have been assessed twice (1). Even though only 1.3% of bird species have gone extinct since 1500 (10), the global number of individual birds is estimated to have experienced a 20-25% reduction during the same period (5), indicating that avian populations and dependent ecosystem services are declining faster than species extinctions would indicate.We compiled and analyzed a database of the conservation status, distribution, and life histories of all extant (9,787) and historically extinct (129) bird species. We synthesized, in a second database, studies of the ecological roles of birds and outlined their contributions to the functioning of diverse natural and human-dominated ecosystems (Table 1, and Table 2, which is published as supporting information on the PNAS web site). To assess the potential effects of bird population declines and extinctions on ecosystem processes and services, we compare the current distribution of threatened birds across various functional groups, habitats, and regions to the distributions forecasted for 2100 based on three scenarios. The scenarios are projections based on the past and present distributions of threatened and nonthreatened birds. Our objective here is to address the ecological implications...