Effects of projected climate change on vegetation in the Blue Mountains ecoregion, USA

Kerns, Becky K.; Powell, David C.; Mellmann-Brown, Sabine; Carnwath, Gunnar C.; Kim, John B.

doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2017.07.002

Cited by 43 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…An additional potential source of error arises from our assumption of unchanging future vegetation cover. Rising CO 2 concentrations, increasing temperatures, and precipitation changes will combine to cause a complex assortment of vegetation changes across the landscape in the decades ahead (e.g., Kerns et al, ; Lenihan et al, ). Those vegetation changes will affect water yield, either positively or negatively in specific locations, potentially altering the basinwide yields we estimated based on the existing vegetation cover.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change

2019

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Population growth and climate change will combine to pose substantial challenges for water management in the United States. Projections of water supply and demand over the 21st century show that in the absence of further adaptation efforts, serious water shortages are likely in some regions. Continued improvements in water use efficiency are likely but will be insufficient to avoid future shortages. Some adaptation measures that have been effective in the past, most importantly large additions to reservoir storage, have little promise. Other major adaptations commonly used in the past, especially instream flow removals and groundwater mining, can substantially lower shortages but have serious external costs. If those costs are to be avoided, transfers from irrigated agriculture probably will be needed and could be substantial.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change

2019

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“…Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) in particular simulate establishment, growth, competition, and mortality, making them a useful tool for understanding how vegetation species distributions and associated carbon stocks respond to climate forcings. DVMs, being process‐based, can be applied at global (Friedlingstein et al, ; Sitch et al, ) to local scales (Kim et al, ) and have been used to project changes in vegetation distributions and associated carbon consequences in the western United States (Bachelet et al, ; Jiang et al, ; Kerns et al, ; Rehfeldt et al, ; Shafer et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parametric Sensitivity of Vegetation Dynamics in the TRIFFID Model and the Associated Uncertainty in Projected Climate Change Impacts on Western U.S. Forests

Hawkins

Rupp

McNeall

et al. 2019

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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Changing climate conditions impact ecosystem dynamics and have local to global impacts on water and carbon cycles. Many processes in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are parameterized, and the unknown/unknowable parameter values introduce uncertainty that has rarely been quantified in projections of forced changes. In this study, we identify processes and parameters that introduce the largest uncertainties in the vegetation state simulated by the DVM Top‐down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) coupled to a regional climate model. We adjust parameters simultaneously in an ensemble of equilibrium vegetation simulations and use statistical emulation to explore sensitivities to, and interactions among, parameters. We find that vegetation distribution is most sensitive to parameters related to carbon allocation and competition. Using a suite of statistical emulators, we identify regions of parameter space that reduce the error in modeled forest cover by 31±9%. We then generate large initial atmospheric condition ensembles with 10 improved DVM parameterizations under preindustrial, contemporary, and future climate conditions to assess uncertainty in the forced response due to parameterization. We find that while most parameterizations agree on the direction of future vegetation transitions in the western United States, the magnitude varies considerably: for example, in the northwest coast the expansion of broadleaf trees and corresponding decline of needleleaf trees ranges from 4 to 28% across 10 DVM parameterizations under projected future climate conditions. We demonstrate that model parameterization contributes to uncertainty in vegetation transition and carbon cycle feedback under nonstationary climate conditions, which has important implications for carbon stocks, ecosystem services, and climate feedback.

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“…LUCC, a direct reflection of the interaction between humans and nature, is a complex process of the combined effects of natural, social and economic factors and is a basic problem for population, resource and environmentally sustainable developments [1][2][3][4]. The spatial and temporal characteristics, driving forces and environmental effects of LUCC are three focuses of LUCC research [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vegetation Restoration and Its Environmental Effects on the Loess Plateau

Zhao

Wang

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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An analysis of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the Loess Plateau over the past 30 years and its environmental effects was performed to provide scientific guidance for a sustainable development policy for the regional ecological environment and social economy. Geostatistical and trend analyses are used to study the LUCC characteristics, driving forces and environmental effects, and the relationship between LUCC and regional sustainable development is explored. The following results were obtained: (1) Overall, the land use structure has not changed, with grassland, farmland, and forest land remaining dominant; however, the vegetation coverage has significantly increased, especially in the central area.(2) LUCC is affected by climate change and human activities, with greater climate change impacts in the northwest than the southeast and greater among which human-induced impacts on the hilly/gully region in the central part. (3) LUCC will produce long-term ecological and environmental processes, such as surface runoff, soil erosion, soil moisture and carbon cycling. Vegetation restoration has both negative and positive effects on the regional ecological environment. Vegetation productivity on the Loess Plateau has approached the water resource carrying capacity threshold. Therefore, improving artificial vegetation stability and promoting the water resources balance have become the main strategies for promoting sustainable development on the Loess Plateau.

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Effects of projected climate change on vegetation in the Blue Mountains ecoregion, USA

Cited by 43 publications

References 46 publications

Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change

Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change

Parametric Sensitivity of Vegetation Dynamics in the TRIFFID Model and the Associated Uncertainty in Projected Climate Change Impacts on Western U.S. Forests

Vegetation Restoration and Its Environmental Effects on the Loess Plateau

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