Effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, bathymetric change and typhoon tracks on storm flooding in the coastal areas of Shanghai

Wang, Jun; Yi, Sang-Wook; Li, Mengya; Wang, Lei; Song, Chengcheng

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.224

Cited by 109 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…While for the year 2099 under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 SLR projections the values of the flooded area will be 85 and 90%, respectively. Wang et al (2018) assessed the effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, bathymetric changes and typhoon tracks on storm flooding in the coastal areas of Shanghai. Their results show that for the year 2025, the combined effect of these variables will flood 1053 Km 2 in the study area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal Impacts Driven by Sea-Level Rise in Cartagena de Indias

et al. 2019

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This work analyzes the coastal impacts of the combined effect of extreme waves and sea level extremes, including surges and projected mean sea level rise in Bocagrande, Cartagena (Colombia). Extreme waves are assessed from a wave reanalysis that are propagated from deep waters to the beach considering the hydrodynamic processes and taking into account the interaction between waves and the coastal elevation within the study area. First, we consider present sea level, storm surges and waves affecting the area. Next, we analyze the effect of sea level rise according to a moderate (RCP4.5) climate change scenario for the 21st century (years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100). The most pessimistic scenario (year 2100) yields a percentage of flooded area of 97.2%, thus revealing the major threat that represents sea level rise for coastal areas in the Caribbean Sea.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal Impacts Driven by Sea-Level Rise in Cartagena de Indias

et al. 2019

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“…However, both storm events occurred near maxima in the monthly and 18.6 year nodal tidal cycles (Ray & Foster, ). At many locations, observations, and modeling suggest that tides and storm tides can evolve through time due to RSL rise, channel deepening, and other factors that alter system depth (e.g., Arns et al, ; Familkhalili & Talke, ; Talke et al, ; Wang et al, ). To put the recent events in Boston in perspective and to determine whether these flood events are statistical anomalies or part of a long‐term trend, we use archival research to construct and analyze a nearly 200‐year long instrumental record of water‐level changes in Boston Harbor.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relative Sea Level, Tides, and Extreme Water Levels in Boston Harbor From 1825 to 2018

2018

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Using newly‐discovered archival measurements, we construct an instrumental record of water levels and storm tides in Boston (MA) since 1825. After ascertaining the 19th century datum and correcting for a 0–0.03 m bias in the modern tide‐gauge record, we show that local, decadally‐averaged relative sea level (RSL) rose by 0.28 ± 0.05 m since 1826, with an acceleration of 0.023 ± 0.009 mm/yr2. Tide range decreased by 5.5% between 1830 and 1910, due in large part to dredging and filling of Boston Harbor, and trended slightly upward thereafter. An evaluation of storm events since 1825 suggests that trends in flood risk are driven by RSL rise, with a small contribution by tidal trends. Sea‐level rise also interacts with the 18.6 year nodal cycle in tide amplitudes to produce decadal fluctuations in hazard. Conditional sampling of the 1825–2018 record shows that storm tides with a 0.01–0.5 annual probability (100 and 2 year events) are 0.1–0.2 m larger during periods with above‐average tidal amplitudes. Similarly, the once‐in‐25 year event during elevated tidal forcing becomes a once‐in‐100 year event during periods of reduced tides. A plurality of historic flood events—including floods in 1851, 1978, and 2018—occurred near the peak of the tidal nodal cycle. Projections to the year 2100 suggest that decadal fluctuations in tide characteristics will interact with relative sea‐level rise to produce a fluctuating hazard over time, with periods of relative stationarity (e.g., the 2020s) bracketed by relatively abrupt increases in flood hazard (the early 2030s).

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“…These consequences of sea-level rise will inevitably lead to additional pressure on the fragile tidal flat ecosystems in the study area. Model simulations demonstrated that the combined effect of sea-level rise, land subsidence, and bathymetric change in the Yangtze estuary zone will cause an increase in coastal flooding by a factor of 8.5-23.4 by 2050 [48]. A new study has demonstrated that the study area is substantially more vulnerable to sea-level rise and coastal flooding than previous projections have suggested [49].…”

Section: Impacts Of Relative Sea-level Risementioning

confidence: 80%

Rapid Loss of Tidal Flats in the Yangtze River Delta since 1974

Zhang

Qiu

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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As the home to national nature reserves and a Ramsar wetland, the tidal flats of the Yangtze River Delta are of great significance for ecological security, at both the local and global scales. However, a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal conditions of the tidal flats in the Yangtze River Delta remains lacking. Here, we propose using remote sensing to obtain a detailed spatiotemporal profile of the tidal flats, using all available Landsat images from 1974 to 2018 with the help of the Google Earth Engine cloud platform. In addition, reclamation data were manually extracted from time series Landsat images for the same period. We found that approximately 40.0% (34.9–43.1%) of the tidal flats in the study area have been lost since 1980, the year in which the tidal flat area was maximal. The change in the tidal flat areas was consistent with the change in the riverine sediment supply. We also found that the cumulative reclamation areas totaled 816.6 km2 and 431.9 km2 in the Yangtze estuary zone and along the Jiangsu coast, respectively, between 1974 and 2018. Because of reclamation, some areas (e.g., the Hengsha eastern shoal and Pudong bank), which used to be quite rich, have lost most of their tidal flats. Currently, almost 70% of the remaining tidal flats are located in the shrinking branch (North Branch) and the two National Nature Reserves (Chongming Dongtan and Jiuduansha) in the Yangtze estuary zone. Consequently, the large-scale loss of tidal flats observed was primarily associated with reduced sediment supply and land reclamation at the time scale of the study. Because increasing demand for land and rising sea levels are expected in the future, immediate steps should be taken to prevent the further deterioration of this valuable ecosystem.

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Effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, bathymetric change and typhoon tracks on storm flooding in the coastal areas of Shanghai

Cited by 109 publications

References 19 publications

Coastal Impacts Driven by Sea-Level Rise in Cartagena de Indias

Coastal Impacts Driven by Sea-Level Rise in Cartagena de Indias

Relative Sea Level, Tides, and Extreme Water Levels in Boston Harbor From 1825 to 2018

Rapid Loss of Tidal Flats in the Yangtze River Delta since 1974

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