Effects of seasonal climate forecasts and participatory workshops among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe

Abstract

Improvements in the ability to model El Niñ o and other large-scale interannual climate variations have allowed for the development of seasonal climate forecasts, predicting rainfall and temperature anomalies for many places around the world. These forecasts have allowed developing countries to predict shortfalls in grain yields, with benefits for food security. Several countries communicate the forecasts to subsistence farmers, which could allow them to mitigate the effects of drought on their harvests by adapting their cropping decisions accordingly. However, it has not been demonstrated that subsistence farmers benefit from having access to the forecasts. Here we present evidence of subsistence farmers using the forecasts over multiple years to make different decisions and significantly improving their harvests when they do so. In a controlled study, farmers in Zimbabwe who reported adapting their farming methods to seasonal climate forecasts significantly improved their harvests over baseline amounts. Moreover, farmers who had attended a brief workshop and learned more about the forecasts were significantly more likely to use the forecasts than were farmers who learned of the forecasts through nonparticipatory channels.climate change ͉ climate forecasting ͉ sustainable development

Implications of rural irrigation schemes on household economy. A case of Lower Gweru Irrigation Scheme, Zimbabwe

“…A case study approach was used for the empirical study of Lower Gweru Irrigation Figure 1. Zimbabwe Agroecological Regions and Lower Gweru Location (after Patt et al 2005) Peasant farming is practised in most parts of the area. Crops commonly are grown ranges from the staple food maize, sweet potatoes and small grain crops being grown as a buffer for semi-arid conditions that prevail in the area.…”

The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa

“…For example, Cane et al (22) showed that Ͼ60% of the variance in Zimbabwean maize yield could be accounted for by an index of ENSO and that accurate predictions of yield could be made with lead times of up to 1 year. Because of the predictable association between ENSO and African climate, ENSO information is being used with other information to forecast and mitigate climatic impacts on water supplies, food production, and human health in southern and eastern Africa (23)(24)(25). We believe that such use of ENSO and NAO information could be even more fruitful if the link between these indices and food production is empirically assessed at large spatial scales.…”

Access to Risk Mitigating Weather Forecasts and Changes in Farming Operations in East and West Africa: Evidence from a Baseline Survey

“…Some research findings have indicated the usefulness of weather forecasts for reducing vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture to drought, flooding and extremely low or high temperature [22][23][24][25][26]. Initiatives to promote access of African farmers to weather forecasts include formation of several regional Climate Outlook Forums (COFs) in the late 1990s [27][28][29][30].…”