Effects of strengthening the Baltic Sea ECA regulations

Jonson, Jan Eiof; Gauss, Michael; Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka; Johansson, Lasse

doi:10.5194/acp-19-13469-2019

Cited by 36 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…As already discussed in Tang et al (2020), Jonson et al (2019) studied the impact of an introduction of strengthened sulphur limits in 2015 and found approximately 35 % reduction of the impact from the regional shipping contribution to PM2.5 around Gothenburg. The global study of Sofiev et al (2018) shows that the impact of the global cap down to 0.5 % FSC does not have any significant impact on a further reduction of shipping-related air pollution around the Swedish West coast.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…In addition, the impact of a wide use of shore-side electricity by ships at berth is investigated. Only few studies considering impacts of shipping in future scenarios specifically relevant for this region can be found in the literature (Cofala et al, 2018;Karl et al, 2019b;Karl et al, 2019a;Jonson et al, 2019;Jonson et al, 2015). However, the abatement measures considered as well as the methods used differ from our approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040

Ramacher¹,

Tang²,

Moldanová³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Shipping is an important source of air pollutants, from the global to the local scale. Ships are emitting substantial amounts of sulphur dioxides, nitrogen dioxides and particulate matter in the vicinity of coasts, threatening the health of the coastal population, especially in harbour cities. Reductions of emissions due to shipping have been targeted by several regulations. Nevertheless, effects of these regulations come into force with temporal delays, global ship traffic is expected to grow in the future, and other land-based anthropogenic emissions might decrease. Thus, it is necessary to investigate combined impacts to identify the impact of shipping activities on air quality, population exposure and health-effects in the future. We investigated the future effect of shipping emissions on air quality and related health effects considering different scenarios of the development of shipping under current regional trends of economic growth and already decided regulations in the Gothenburg urban area in 2040. Additionally, we investigated the impact of a large-scale implementation of shore electricity in the port of Gothenburg. For this purpose, we established a one-way nested chemistry transport modelling (CTM) system from the global to the urban scale, to calculate pollutant concentrations, population weighted concentrations and health-effects related to NO2, PM2.5 and O3. The simulated concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 in future scenarios for the year 2040 are in general very low with up to 4 ppb for NO2 and up to 3.5 µg/m3 PM2.5 in the urban areas which are not close to the port area. From 2012 the simulated overall exposure to PM2.5 decreased by approximately 30 % in simulated future scenarios, for NO2 the decrease was over 60 %. The simulated concentrations of O3 increased from year 2012 to 2040 by about 20 %. In general, the contributions of local shipping emissions in 2040 focus on the harbour area but to some extent also influence the rest of the city domain. The simulated impact of wide use of shore-site electricity for shipping in 2040 shows reductions for NO2 in the port with up to 30 %, while increasing O3 of up to 3 %. Implementation of on-shore electricity for ships at berth leads to additional local reduction potentials of up to 3 % for PM2.5 and 12 % for SO2 in the port area. All future scenarios show substantial decreases in population weighted exposure and health-effect impacts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040

Ramacher¹,

Tang²,

Moldanová³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…In Karl et al (2019), the EMEP model, the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) model, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modelling System (CMAQ) model were compared to measurements and in terms of calculated effects of ship emissions in the Baltic Sea. For PM 2.5 , both the CMAQ and the EMEP models had a slightly negative bias, whereas the SILAM model had virtually no bias.…”

Section: Model Evaluation and Comparisons To Other Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Karl et al (2019), the EMEP (https://emep.int/mscw/ mscw_models.html (last access: September 2020) model, along with two other models, was applied in a regional study on the effects of ship emissions in the Baltic Sea region using meteorology and emissions for the year 2012. In that study, the average contribution of ships to levels of PM 2.5 ranged from 4.15 % to 6.5 % in the entire Baltic Sea region and from 3.15 % to 5.7 % in the coastal land areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of global ship emissions on European air pollution levels

et al. 2020

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Abstract. Ship emissions constitute a large, and so far poorly regulated, source of air pollution. Emissions are mainly clustered along major ship routes both in open seas and close to densely populated shorelines. Major air pollutants emitted include sulfur dioxide, NOx, and primary particles. Sulfur and NOx are both major contributors to the formation of secondary fine particles (PM2.5) and to acidification and eutrophication. In addition, NOx is a major precursor for ground-level ozone. In this paper, we quantify the contributions from international shipping to European air pollution levels and depositions. This study is based on global and regional model calculations. The model runs are made with meteorology and emission data representative of the year 2017 after the tightening of the SECA (sulfur emission control area) regulations in 2015 but before the global sulfur cap that came into force in 2020. The ship emissions have been derived using ship positioning data. We have also made model runs reducing sulfur emissions by 80 % corresponding to the 2020 requirements. This study is based on model sensitivity studies perturbing emissions from different sea areas: the northern European SECA in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, the Atlantic Ocean close to Europe, shipping in the rest of the world, and finally all global ship emissions together. Sensitivity studies have also been made setting lower bounds on the effects of ship plumes on ozone formation. Both global- and regional-scale calculations show that for PM2.5 and depositions of oxidised nitrogen and sulfur, the effects of ship emissions are much larger when emissions occur close to the shore than at open seas. In many coastal countries, calculations show that shipping is responsible for 10 % or more of the controllable PM2.5 concentrations and depositions of oxidised nitrogen and sulfur. With few exceptions, the results from the global and regional calculations are similar. Our calculations show that substantial reductions in the contributions from ship emissions to PM2.5 concentrations and to depositions of sulfur can be expected in European coastal regions as a result of the implementation of a 0.5 % worldwide limit of the sulfur content in marine fuels from 2020. For countries bordering the North Sea and Baltic Sea SECA, low sulfur emissions have already resulted in marked reductions in PM2.5 from shipping before 2020. For ozone, the lifetime in the atmosphere is much longer than for PM2.5, and the potential for ozone formation is much larger in otherwise pristine environments. We calculate considerable contributions from open sea shipping. As a result, we find that the largest contributions to ozone in several regions and countries in Europe are from sea areas well outside European waters.

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“…The implementation of the more stringent SECA 630 regulations on FSC in year 2015 is not likely to have changed impacts from NO2 and ozone. According to the study of Jonson et al (2019), approximately 35 % reduction of the impact from the regional shipping contribution to PM2.5 could be expected around Gothenburg while a much smaller change can be expected in emission from the local shipping since hotelling and inland shipping already use a fuel with 0.1 % FSC in the model. This would mean similar reductions of the impacts related to PM2.5 in the city of Gothenburg.…”

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confidence: 99%

The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part I: 2012 emissions

Tang¹,

Ramacher²,

Moldanová³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Ship emissions in and around ports are of interest for urban air quality management in many harbour cities. We investigated the impact of regional and local ship emissions on urban air quality for 2012-year conditions in the city of 25 Gothenburg, Sweden, the largest cargo port in Scandinavia. In order to assess the effects of ship emissions, a coupled regional and local-scale model system has been set up, using ship emissions in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, as well as in and around the port of Gothenburg. Ship emissions are calculated with the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM) model taking into account individual vessel characteristics and vessel activity data. The calculated contributions from local and regional shipping to local air pollution in Gothenburg were found substantial, especially in areas around the city ports. The 30 local shipping contribution of NO2 to annual mean concentrations was up to 3.3 ppb, together with contribution from regional shipping at the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, the contribution was up to 4.3 ppb. In an area close to the city terminals, the contribution of NO2 from local shipping was higher than that of the road traffic, which indicates importance of controlling the local shipping emissions. The local shipping emissions of NOx decreased the summer mean O3 levels in the city by 0.5 ppb on annual mean. The regional shipping lead to a slight increase in the O3 concentrations, however, the overall effect of the regional 35 and the local shipping together was a small decrease of the summer mean O3 concentrations in the city. For PM2.5, the local ship emissions contributed with 0.1 µg m -3 to the annual mean concentrations on the city-domain average, regional shipping was under 2012 conditions a larger contributor to the local PM2.5 than the local shipping, with an annual mean contribution of 0.5 µg m -3 on the city-domain average. 40Based on the modelled local and regional shipping contributions, the health effects of PM2.5, NO2 and ozone were assessed using the ALPHA-RiskPoll (ARP) model. An effect of the shipping-associated PM2.5 exposure in the modelled area was a mean loss of the life expectancy by 0.015 years per person. The relative contribution of the local shipping to the impact of total PM2.5 was 2.2 % which can be compared to 5.3 % contribution from the local road traffic. The relative contribution of the regional shipping was 10.3 %. The mortalities due to the exposure to NO2 associated to shipping were calculated to be 2.6 45 premature deaths/year. The relative contribution of the local and the regional shipping to the total exposure to NO2 in the reference simulation was 14 % and 21 %, respectively. The shipping related ozone exposures were due to the NO titration effect, leading to negative number of premature deaths. Our study show that overall health impacts of regional shipping can be more important than those of local shipping, emphasising that abatement policy options on city-scale air pollution require close cooperation across governance level...

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Effects of strengthening the Baltic Sea ECA regulations

Cited by 36 publications

References 27 publications

The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040

The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040

Effects of global ship emissions on European air pollution levels

The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part I: 2012 emissions

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