Effects of technological development and electricity price reductions on adoption of residential heat pumps in Ontario, Canada

Abstract

Home heating accounts for most of the residential energy use in Canada. While natural gas, oil-fired furnaces, and electric resistance are the dominant heating system choices, heat pumps have become a viable alternative. Heat pumps with lower minimum operating temperatures and better performance are increasing both their effectiveness and their number of hours of useful service. In this study, we apply System Dynamics to analyze the effects of technological development on the rate at which homeowners adopt residential air source heat pumps. We test the effects of low, moderate and high rates of technological development, as well as reduced electricity and carbon pricing on the predicted rate of adoption in Ontario. From the perspective of the use stage in life cycle assessment, we estimate energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions. We predict that using heat pumps will substantially reduce overall energy consumption, and in Ontario, where electricity is generated with little use of fossil fuels, it will also reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Heat pumps in Ontario

“…We also present energy, GHG emissions, and operating costs for the individual home on a yearly basis in each city analyzed. Operating cost is one force driving heat pump adoption [64]. To answer the questions of whether and when there is a net increase in electricity demand, we model a hypothetical scenario of full adoption of heat pumps in all the available SDDs in the seven chosen cities.…”

“…It seems likely that in the next 5-10 years we will see very small changes in electricity demand due to heat pumps regardless of the scenario chosen because adoption of heat pumps will not be significant [25,26,64]. Policy makers might for this reason consider the pursuit of the electrification of home heating with heat pumps separately from any concerns for electricity generation.…”

A comparative life cycle assessment of a cascade heat pump and a natural gas furnace for residential heating purposes

“…In Canada, given the colder climate, the vast majority of residential energy use is due to heating usages (Szekeres & Jeswiet, 2018). Most residential units in Canada primarily use furnaces that operate on natural gas or electric resistance elements to heat their homes (Szekeres & Jeswiet, 2018).…”

“…In Canada, given the colder climate, the vast majority of residential energy use is due to heating usages (Szekeres & Jeswiet, 2018). Most residential units in Canada primarily use furnaces that operate on natural gas or electric resistance elements to heat their homes (Szekeres & Jeswiet, 2018). Furnaces generally operate by burning fossil fuels, and the two main energy sources for furnaces are natural gas or oil, accounting for almost three-quarters of all heating systems in Canada (Szekeres & Jeswiet, 2018).…”

“…Furnaces generally operate by burning fossil fuels, and the two main energy sources for furnaces are natural gas or oil, accounting for almost three-quarters of all heating systems in Canada (Szekeres & Jeswiet, 2018). The fuels used in these furnaces are also responsible for up to 90.6% of all residential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Ontario (Szekeres & Jeswiet, 2018). To reduce GHG emissions, phasing out furnaces that run on fossil fuels should be considered, and alternative means of heat and cooling should become a priority for residential use.…”