Effects of temperature anomalies on the Palmer Drought Severity Index in the central United States

Hu, Qi; Willson, G.D.

doi:10.1002/1097-0088(200012)20:15<1899::aid-joc588>3.0.co;2-m

Cited by 114 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…This demonstrates that the variability of the temperature would have a remarked impact on the drought severity on the Loess Plateau during the time span from 1954 to 2012. Hu and Willson (2000) also found that temperature anomalies play a crucial role in explaining the drought variability in central United States, and it could be comparable to the role of precipitation under some circumstances. The effects of temperature on drought severity should be attributed to its direct impact on evapotranspiration (Sheffield and Wood, 2008) and the follow-up impacts on runoff, river discharge, groundwater and reservoir water storage (Zipper and Loheide II, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Spatiotemporal analysis of multiscalar drought characteristics across the Loess Plateau of China

Liu

Wang

Shao

et al. 2016

Journal of Hydrology

171

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s u m m a r yDrought is the most widespread and destructive hazard in arid and semiarid regions, with behaviors that become more complicated under climate change. To provide an overall view of drought conditions across the Loess Plateau of China, two multiscalar drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), were used to identify the regional spatiotemporal characteristics of drought conditions from 1957 to 2012. Climatic data from 54 meteorological stations across the region were used to calculate the SPI and SPEI time series at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-and 24-month time scales. Subregions with independent drought characteristics and the corresponding representative meteorological stations were identified by principal component analysis to facilitate regional drought monitoring. A temporal trend of drought severity over a 12-month time scale, as detected by the Mann-Kendall test, was mapped for the entire region. The intensity of the increasing trend of drought severity based on the SPEI was weaker than that based on the SPI. The area with a significant increasing trend of drought severity based on the SPEI was only found in the southwest of the region and was much smaller than that based on the SPI. The temporal behavior of drought frequency from January to December differed over different time scales and levels of drought severity. The regional distributions of the drought frequency were mapped for different months. Generally, the drought frequency spatially decreased from southeast to northwest and was higher in the middle of the winter, late spring and early summer. While the drought-hit area also changed with time, it was generally within the central and northwest areas of the region. Drought behaviors identified by the SPI and SPEI also changed with different time scales. Clear differences were also found among the drought characteristics identified by SPI, SPEI and the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index. The SPEI is considered as a robust index for regional drought monitoring and analysis under global climate change scenarios because of its multiscalar nature, simple form, low data requirement, and ability to identify the effects of temperature on drought conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Spatiotemporal analysis of multiscalar drought characteristics across the Loess Plateau of China

Liu

Wang

Shao

et al. 2016

Journal of Hydrology

171

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“…The trend analysis of SPI magnitude showed a decreasing tendency, indicating increasing drought, which is more evident at the longer time scale. Even there is limited study concerning drought trend in Nepal, evidence of increased occurrence of drought due to precipitation deficit is consistent with the results presented by previous researchers (Kafle 2014;Sigdel and Ikeda 2010;Wang et al 2013) Several studies (Chang and Kleopa 1991;Heim 2002;Paulo and Pereira 2006) have shown that precipitation is the main variable determining drought condition; however, many empirical studies (Hu and Willson 2000;Rebetez et al 2006;Vicente-Serrano et al 2009) Nat Hazards (2016) 80:1913-19321927 have shown that rise in temperature has important effects on the severity of droughts conditions. Figure 12 shows that there is increasing trend of temperature in all region of central Nepal in past.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis

et al. 2015

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This paper presents temporal and spatial pattern of drought phenomena in central Nepal using standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple time scales. The study is based on 32 years of monthly precipitation data from 40 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2012. Results indicate that, while there is no distinct trend in regional precipitation, interannual variation is large. Trend analysis of drought index shows that most stations are characterized by increases in both severity and frequency of drought and trend is stronger for longer drought time scales. Over the study period, the summer 123Nat Hazards (2016) 80:1913-1932 DOI 10.1007/s11069-015-2055 season of 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009 and winters 2006, 2008 and 2009 were the worst widespread droughts. These dry periods have a serious impact on agriculture-livestock production of central Nepal. Better understanding of these SPI dynamics could help in understanding the characteristics of droughts and also to develop effective mitigation strategies.

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“…However, some authors have warned against systematically neglecting the importance of the effect of temperature on drought conditions. For example, Hu and Willson (2000) assessed the role of precipitation and temperature in the PDSI, and found that the index responded equally to changes of similar magnitude in both variables. Only where the temperature fluctuation was smaller than that of precipitation was variability in the PDSI controlled by precipitation.…”

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confidence: 85%

A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

2010

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Abstract. We propose a new climatic drought index: the Standardized PrecipitationEvapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and has the advantage of combining a multi-scalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed, and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a Log-logistic probability distribution.Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), but includes the role of temperature. As the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI). We compared time series of the three indices for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an increase in drought severity associated with higher water demand due to evapotranspiration. Relative to the sc-PDSI, the SPEI has the advantage of being multi-scalar, which is crucial for drought analysis and monitoring.

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Effects of temperature anomalies on the Palmer Drought Severity Index in the central United States

Cited by 114 publications

References 16 publications

Spatiotemporal analysis of multiscalar drought characteristics across the Loess Plateau of China

Spatiotemporal analysis of multiscalar drought characteristics across the Loess Plateau of China

Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis

A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

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