Effects of unemployment news on economic perceptions – Evidence from German Federal States

Garz, Marcel

doi:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.11.006

Cited by 23 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…We use the occurrence of milestones in the unemployment rate or number to address this endogeneity problem. As Garz (2018) shows, monthly changes in unemployment are more salient when they involve crossing a round number. The reason is that people use round numbers as cognitive shortcuts when they process information (Rosch 1975).…”

Section: Empirical Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, Pope and Simonsohn (2011) show that people use round numbers to set goals in scholastic tests and sports events, and Alter and Hershfield (2014) find that people are more likely to make substantial lifestyle changes at round ages. Examples in economics include Lacetera, Pope, and Sydnor (2012), who show that sales prices of used cars discontinuously drop when the odometer hits 10,000 miles, and Garz (2018), who introduces the unemployment milestone approach that we exploit here. Garz shows that milestones in German unemployment figures affect public perception of the state of the economy.…”

Section: Relationship To Literature On Accountability For Economic Pe...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Media Influence on Vote Choices: Unemployment News and Incumbents' Electoral Prospects

Garz

Martin²

2020

American J Political Sci

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How does news about the economy influence voting decisions? We isolate the effect of the information environment from the effect of change in the underlying economic conditions themselves by taking advantage of left‐digit bias. We show that unemployment figures crossing a round‐number “milestone” cause a discontinuous increase in the amount of media coverage devoted to unemployment conditions, and we use this discontinuity to estimate the effect of attention to unemployment news on voting, holding constant the actual economic conditions on the ground. Milestone effects on incumbent U.S. governor vote shares are large and notably asymmetric: Bad milestone events hurt roughly twice as much as good milestone events help.

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Section: Empirical Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Relationship To Literature On Accountability For Economic Pe...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Media Influence on Vote Choices: Unemployment News and Incumbents' Electoral Prospects

Garz

Martin²

2020

American J Political Sci

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“…Thus * is the product of the cross-sectional interest in different types of competing events and the time-varying occurrence of disasters and attacks. Instruments referring to the congestion of the news agenda have been widely applied before; for example, in the context of disaster news (Eisensee and Strömberg, 2007), scandal coverage (Nyhan, 2014), campaign coverage (Garcia-Jimeno and Yildirim, 2017), reports about unemployment (Garz, 2017), news about criminal politicians (Garz and Sörensen, 2017), and coverage of terrorist attacks (Jetter, 2017). Weighting national news shocks by predetermined, regional variation in the demand for different kinds of news is similar to instruments that combine time-varying trends and initial, cross-sectional differences.…”

Section: Control Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cautionary tales: Celebrities, the news media, and participation in tax amnesties

Garz

Pagels

2018

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in

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“…Regarding the explanatory factors of confidence, the effect of news transmitted by the media on confidence indicators, especially in times of unpleasant events-see Garner (2002) for the particular case of 9/11-and mostly associated with serious crises was confirmed by Alsem et al (2008) and Vliegenthart and Damstra (2019). For the current article, the studies that prove the particular importance of news about unemployment on the formation of expectations, economic sentiments or confidence levels are of particular interest; see Garz (2018) for the case of the federal states of Germany and/or Sorić et al (2019) for the case of the Eurozone.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 79%

Learning to Classify the Consumer Confidence Indicator (in Portugal)

Caleiro

2021

Economies

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The literature paid some attention, some time ago, to the relationship that, supposedly, should exist between the level of consumer confidence and the unemployment rate. This relationship is interesting, both from a scientific point of view, given the inherently subjective character of that level of confidence, but also from the point of view of economic policy, given the importance of the unemployment rate. In this article, that relationship is revisited, using learning models, namely regression and classification trees. Using, for example, the case of Portugal, the unemployment rate presents itself as an adequate classifier of the consumer confidence level. The use of classification trees shows that the separation between low and high values of the consumer confidence indicator is made from an adequate threshold value of the unemployment rate. The use of regression trees shows that the levels of consumer confidence are inversely related to the levels of the unemployment rate. In terms of policy lessons, this confirms that, in the face of economic crises, such as the one we are experiencing, in which confidence levels tend to fall and the unemployment rate increases, the relationship between these two variables cannot be ignored.

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Effects of unemployment news on economic perceptions – Evidence from German Federal States

Cited by 23 publications

References 47 publications

Media Influence on Vote Choices: Unemployment News and Incumbents' Electoral Prospects

Media Influence on Vote Choices: Unemployment News and Incumbents' Electoral Prospects

Cautionary tales: Celebrities, the news media, and participation in tax amnesties

Learning to Classify the Consumer Confidence Indicator (in Portugal)

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