2016
DOI: 10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0001183
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Efficacy of Estimation Methods in Forecasting Building Projects’ Costs

Abstract: This paper investigates the adequacy of some nontraditional approaches to produce realistic forecasts of the final costs of building projects and compare them with forecasts produced by three traditional methods, the unit area costs (UAC), client detailed costs (UPA), and contract sums (CS). As a case study, data of the actual final costs and forecasts produced using the three traditional methods for 420 finished public building projects carried out in Turkey were collected. Based on 75% of the collected data … Show more

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Cited by 37 publications
(13 citation statements)
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“…In addition, the activation function used was the hyperbolic tangent (tansig) in the two steps of the neuron processing of the hidden layer and the output of the network. This activation function is in accordance with previous studies on cost estimate [12], [13], [15], [18]. As mentioned above, the training was carried out from 13 projects.…”
Section: Data Analysis and Identification Of Variablessupporting
confidence: 71%
“…In addition, the activation function used was the hyperbolic tangent (tansig) in the two steps of the neuron processing of the hidden layer and the output of the network. This activation function is in accordance with previous studies on cost estimate [12], [13], [15], [18]. As mentioned above, the training was carried out from 13 projects.…”
Section: Data Analysis and Identification Of Variablessupporting
confidence: 71%
“…( (Awojobi and Jenkins, 2016;Batselier and Vanhoucke, 2016;Bayram and Al-Jibouri, 2016a;Bayram and Al-Jibouri, 2016b;Boateng et al, 2013;Bordley, 2014;Callegari et al, 2018;De Jong et al, 2013;Flyvbjerg, 2014;Flyvbjerg, 2009;Flyvbjerg, 2006;Flyvbjerg et al, 2016;Flyvbjerg et al, 2009;Flyvbjerg and Budzier, 2011;Flyvbjerg and Stewart, 2012;Kaiser and Snyder, 2012;Koch, 2012;Leleur et al, 2015;Love et al, 2016;Makovšek, 2014;Olsson et al, 2010;Prater et al, 2017;Salling and Banister, 2009;Salling and Leleur, 2015a;Salli...…”
Section: Narrative Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…e uniformity in the field, for example, did not take into account the management level, professional capabilities of the travel industry unit, as well as project quality, safety, and construction period, and was unable to adapt well to the market economic system. As a result, traditional construction project cost forecasting [19,20] often fails to achieve satisfactory accuracy, and it often takes a long time. e construction project cost prediction loses its practical significance as a result of its low precision and time-consuming nature.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%