Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: The Role of Professional Tipsters

Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements

“…Many studies have examined the degree to which specific pieces of performance-related information are accounted for in odds. The general conclusion is that bettors effectively incorporate most individual pieces of relevant information into odds, either immediately (e.g., Vaughan Williams, 2000;Smith, 2003;Deschamps & Gergaud, 2008) or over time (e.g., Johnson et al, 2010). The general finding is that, compared to other forecasting methods such as statistical models using sports-related input variables, expert tipsters, and lay predictions, betting odds provide the most accurate forecasts (Forrest et al, 2005;Luckner & Weinhardt, 2008;Spann & Skiera, 2009;Štrumbelj, 2014).…”

To what extent can new web-based technology improve forecasts? Assessing the economic value of information derived from Virtual Globes and its rate of diffusion in a financial market

“…evidence in the literature related to sport betting markets that odds provide well-calibrated forecasts of each contestant's winning probability (e.g., Johnson and Bruce, 2001;Smith, 2003;Deschamps and Gergaud, 2008;Lessmann et al, 2010). A wide range of studies have demonstrated that predictions based on final odds are better than forecasts based on many other methods, including lay persons' aggregate fast and frugal predictions (Serwe and Frings, 2006;Spann and Skiera, 2009), experts' predictions (Forrest and Simmons, 2000) and statistical models using fundamental variables (Croxson and Reade, 2012;Štrumbelj and Vračar,, 2012;Baker and McHale, 2013;Baboota and Khaur, 2018)).…”

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Sports Betting Tipsters as Professional Bettors: A Qualitative Interview Study

“…Online tipster communities and professional tipsters can be viewed as a new type of sports-based entrepreneurship or investment analysts, and, as such, they might become role models for amateur bettors to emulate [31,32]. In this context, tipsters (who also qualify as gatekeepers/odd-setters in the name of sports betting) also affect the lives of other individuals who follow them or receive forecasting services from them [31,[33][34][35]. López-Gonzalez et al (2021) [32] stated that "tipsters can be harmful for bettors undergoing treatment for gambling disorder because tipsters can be viewed by bettors less as somebody who can help them and more as somebody they aspire to be" (p. 13).…”

“…Additionally, previous studies on professionals were not conducted with any specific reference to SBTs [23,25,26]. More specifically, the studies that have been carried out on SBTs have focused on the performance of their betting forecasts [8,27,[33][34][35]. In short, no study has investigated the views and perspectives of individuals who bet professionally on sports and SBTs in relation to the social and psychological processes for sports and e-sports betting, especially in the unique context of the COVID-19 pandemic.…”