Efficiency of online football betting markets

Angelini, Giovanni; Angelis, Luca De

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.008

Cited by 60 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 34 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In all four divisions and for the fixed sample of 13 bookmakers, commission rates significantly decreased by 0.3-0.5 points by the end of the 2017/18 season. Previous findings, however, suggest that bookmaker commission rates have been broadly constant in England despite the hypothesised increasing commercial pressure (Forrest et al, 2005;Angelini and De Angelis, 2019). A simple reason our results may differ is that we fix the bookmakers studied over the sample period, and therefore the estimated commission rates are not impacted by changes in the sample composition, e.g.…”

Section: Data and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…We test whether betting markets are efficient by adapting the standard Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969) forecast efficiency evaluation framework further than Angelini and De Angelis (2019), estimating the following model using least squares:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We estimate (1) using weighted least squares, thus increasing efficiency and partially addressing heteroskedasticity in the forecast errors. The elements of the diagonal weighting matrix are approximated by z i j (1 − z i j ), as suggested by Angelini and De Angelis (2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market

Elaad

Reade

Singleton

2020

Finance Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We contribute to the discussion on betting market efficiency by studying the odds (or prices) set by fifty-one online bookmakers, for the result outcomes in over 16,000 association football matches in England since 2010. Adapting a methodology typically used to evaluate forecast efficiency, we test the Efficient Market Hypothesis in this context. We find odds are generally not biased when compared against actual match outcomes, both in terms of favourite-longshot or outcome types. But individual bookmakers are not efficient. Their own odds do not appear to use fully the information contained in their competitors' odds.

show abstract

Section: Data and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 56%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market

Elaad

Reade

Singleton

2020

Finance Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This work aims to provide a unique insight to the very challenging world of sports betting, examining the prediction of game results from an economical perspective. Evaluating the available literature, there are some evidence of inefficiencies in soccer betting market (Angelini & De Angelis, 2018), which means that many interesting approaches could be utilized to define efficient models and strategies in terms of profitability. In the core of all these approaches data mining was widely accepted as appropriate method to predict and explain events.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Soccer Outcome Using Cost-Sensitive Models Oriented to Investment Opportunities

Talattinis

Kyriakides

Kapantai

et al. 2019

International Journal of Computer Science in Sport

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Realizing the significant effect that misprediction has on many real-world problems, our paper is focused on the way these costs could affect the sports sector in terms of soccer outcome predictions. In our experimental analysis, we consider the potential influence of a cost-sensitive approach rather than traditional machine-learning methods. Although the measurement of prediction accuracy is a very important part of the validation of each model, we also study its economic significance. As a performance metric for our models, the Sharpe ratio metric is calculated and analyzed. Seeking to improve Sharpe ratio value, a genetic algorithm is applied. The empirical study and evaluation procedure of the paper are primarily based on English Premier League’s games, simple historical data and well-known bookmakers’ markets odds. Our research confirms that it is worthwhile to employ cost-sensitive methods for the successful predictions of soccer results and better investment opportunities.

show abstract

“…Similar to financial markets, prediction markets are efficient if the market prices reflect all historical information and the prices are the best forecasts for the outcome probabilities of a match (Angelini & de Angelis, 2019). However, some more recent studies have shown deviations from efficient prices because the prices do not incorporate all available information.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sonic Thunder vs Brian the Snail – Fast-Sounding Racehorse Names and Prediction Accuracy in Betting Exchange Markets

2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper examines the influence of objectively irrelevant information on prediction accuracy in horse-racing betting exchange markets. In horse racing, the name of a horse does not depend on the horse's performance and is thus uninformative. We investigate the impact of fast-sounding horse names on prediction market price accuracy and betting returns. Using over 3 million horse bets, we find evidence that the winning probabilities of bets on horses with fast-sounding names are overstated, which impairs the prediction accuracy of such bets. This finding implies that the prices in betting exchange markets are not efficient, as prices become distorted by incorporating the misleading information from a horse's fast-sounding name. This bias translates into significantly lower betting returns for horses classified as fastsounding compared to the returns of all other horses.

show abstract

Efficiency of online football betting markets

Cited by 60 publications

References 34 publications

Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market

Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market

Forecasting Soccer Outcome Using Cost-Sensitive Models Oriented to Investment Opportunities

Sonic Thunder vs Brian the Snail – Fast-Sounding Racehorse Names and Prediction Accuracy in Betting Exchange Markets

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About