Heat-flow and thermal-stress models of continuous steel slab casting are calibrated with detailed measurements of a breakout and applied to predict longitudinal off-corner crack formation. First, a fluid mass balance is applied together with the measured slide-gate position, mold level, casting speed histories to reconstruct the transient events that occurred during the breakout, including the flow-rate and solidification time histories. An efficient one-dimensional (1-D) heat transfer model of the mold, CON1D, is calibrated to match the measured mold heat flux and thermocouple temperatures, with the help of a full 3-D finite-element model. Using these results, a finite-element thermal-stress model of the solidifying shell was able to match the measured shell thickness profiles, and was applied to reveal insights into interfacial gap conditions and other effects on the formation of off-corner longitudinal cracks and breakouts.