Rice can grow in almost all of the islands in Indonesia, but 57 per cent of it was produced in Java, which is less than 10 per cent of the national area in Indonesia. To anticipate the increasing need for rice consumption, it is important to study the prospects for increasing national rice production, especially by utilizing the potential of agricultural land outside Java island. The purpose of this study was to identify the prospects for the development of national rice, especially outside Java island, from the perspective of rice production factors and technical efficiency at the farm level. Using stochastic frontier analysis, the translog production function showed that the increasing use of inputs (land, seeds, fertilizers, pesticides) will not significantly increase rice production both in Java and outside Java island (inelastic). Technical efficiency analysis indicated that rice production in Java and outside Java island was 28 and 39 per cent below its frontier, respectively. Further analysis showed that irrigation, land status, farmer groups, and farmer education were significantly improved technical efficiency. This study concluded that the potential to increase rice production by increasing technical efficiency outside of Java island was greater than in Java island. However, increasing the efficiency of rice production outside Java may be constrained by the availability of irrigated agricultural land. To significantly increase national rice production both in Java and outside Java island, a breakthrough in new rice production technology is needed.