El Niño Southern Oscillation and Ross River Virus Outbreaks in Australia

Kelly-Hope, Louise A.; Purdie, David M.; Kay, Brian H.

doi:10.1089/vbz.2004.4.210

Cited by 21 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…This comparison highlights that RRV risk factors vary throughout temperate Australia and, therefore, conditions influencing mosquito epidemiology on a local scale play a significant role. This is consistent with modelling studies of RRV that caution against using general climate patterns to predict outbreaks due to the multiplicity of factors involved (Kelly-Hope et al 2004;Woodruff et al 2006). In view of the potential for climate change (Russell 1998) and human modification of natural landscapes (Spratt 2005) to favour transmission of mosquito-borne disease in Australia, identification of wildlife populations entirely absent of RRV may prove useful for monitoring the potential spread of the virus.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Absence of Ross River virus amongst Common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) from metropolitan Sydney, Australia

2008

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Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-transmittedAlphavirus emerging in urban centres throughout Australia. The Common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), a native marsupial that has successfully adapted to human settlement, has been implicated as a maintenance reservoir for RRV. In the present study, RRV exposure was assessed amongst 72 urban-adapted possums from Northern Sydney and ten possums from a woodland area, remote from urbanisation. Serological screening was performed using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to detect RRV antibodies in possum sera. Findings indicated that both possum populations from urban and woodland habitats were negative for the presence of RRV antibodies. Lack of exposure to RRV highlights that the host status of possums is contingent upon factors other than their abundance and proximity to human settlement. In view of the potential for climate change to favour transmission of mosquito-borne disease in Australia, identification of wildlife populations entirely absent of RRV may prove useful for monitoring the predicted spread of the virus.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Absence of Ross River virus amongst Common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) from metropolitan Sydney, Australia

2008

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“…In these, SOI values were high or positive in one or more of the months before the outbreaks were recorded. These positive SOI values were more likely to occur during a La Nina episode and often were high for months (Kelly-Hope et al 2004a). On retrospective analysis, 18 of the 20 La Nina episodes over 123 years were linked to RRV outbreaks around Australia (Kelly-Hope et al 2004a).…”

Section: Global Climate Change and Alphavirus Disease In Australiamentioning

confidence: 97%

“…La Nina, increased SOI values, and increased cyclone activity are also blamed for an increase in frequency and magnitude of tides in Western Australia, leading to peaks in arbovirus disease incidence. A second measure of climate variation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, has been found to correlate with RRV disease incidence in Queensland (Kelly-Hope et al 2004a, Russell 2002.…”

Section: Global Climate Change and Alphavirus Disease In Australiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Ross River Virus and Barmah Forest Virus Infections: A Review of History, Ecology, and Predictive Models, with Implications for Tropical Northern Australia

Jacups

Whelan

Currie³

2008

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases

143

128

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The purpose of the present article is to present a review of the Ross River virus (RRV) and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) literature in relation to potential implications for future disease in tropical northern Australia. Ross River virus infection is the most common and most widespread arboviral disease in Australia, with an average of 4,800 national notifications annually. Of recent concern is the sudden rise in BFV infections; the 2005-2006 summer marked the largest BFV epidemic on record in Australia, with 1,895 notifications. Although not life-threatening, infection with either virus can cause arthritis, myalgia, and fatigue for 6 months or longer, resulting in substantial morbidity and economic impact. The geographic distribution of mosquito species and their seasonal activity is determined in large part by temperature and rainfall. Predictive models can be useful tools in providing early warning systems for epidemics of RRV and BFV infection. Various models have been developed to predict RRV outbreaks, but these appear to be mostly only regionally valid, being dependent on local ecological factors. Difficulties have arisen in developing useful models for the tropical northern parts of Australia, and to date no models have been developed for the Northern Territory. Only one model has been developed for predicting BFV infections using climate and tide variables. It is predicted that the exacerbation of current greenhouse conditions will result in longer periods of high mosquito activity in the tropical regions where RRV and BFV are already common. In addition, the endemic locations may expand further within temperate regions, and epidemics may become more frequent in those areas. Further development of predictive models should benefit public health planning by providing early warning systems of RRV and BFV infection outbreaks in different geographical locations.

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“…The La Niñ a part of the cycle has been associated with warm, wet conditions and outbreaks of mosquito-borne disease (Nicholls 1993, Maelzer et al 1999, Kovats et al 2003, and moderate to strong episodes were recorded in months preceding the 1971, 1974, and 1976 outbreaks. Recently, we identiÞed La Niñ a conditions as important predisposing factors for populations in close proximity to the Murray Darling Rivers (Kelly-Hope et al 2004b) and proposed that runoff from regional rainfall could increase river levels and encourage mosquito breeding over time. Warmer winter and spring temperatures recorded in outbreak years may also have allowed an earlier commencement of Cx annulistrosis activity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences in Climatic Factors Between Ross River Virus Disease Outbreak and Nonoutbreak Years

Kelly-Hope

Purdie

Kay

2004

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Ross River virus is a common mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand climatic factors preceding outbreaks, we compared seasonal and monthly rainfall and temperature trends in outbreak and nonoutbreak years at four epidemic-prone locations. Our analyses showed that rainfall in outbreak years tended to be above average and higher than rainfall in nonoutbreak years. Overall temperatures were warmer during outbreak years. However, there were a number of distinct deviations in temperature, which seem to play a role in either promoting or inhibiting outbreaks. These preliminary findings show that climatic differences occur between outbreak and nonoutbreak years; however, seasonal and monthly trends differed across geo-climatic regions of the country. More detailed research is imperative if we are to optimize the surveillance and control of epidemic polyarthritic disease in Australia.

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El Niño Southern Oscillation and Ross River Virus Outbreaks in Australia

Cited by 21 publications

References 11 publications

Absence of Ross River virus amongst Common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) from metropolitan Sydney, Australia

Absence of Ross River virus amongst Common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) from metropolitan Sydney, Australia

Ross River Virus and Barmah Forest Virus Infections: A Review of History, Ecology, and Predictive Models, with Implications for Tropical Northern Australia

Differences in Climatic Factors Between Ross River Virus Disease Outbreak and Nonoutbreak Years

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