El Nino-Southern Oscillation Influences on Food Security

Abstract

El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most recurrent change in climate impacting agriculture productivity and food security. This study investigates ENSO impacts on four cereal crops (maize, millet, sorghum and wheat) using crop production and climate datasets spanning the years 1960-2015. The results of this study reveal that during El Nino (La Nina) maize, sorghum and wheat production decreases (increases) while that of millet increases (decreases). Even though, the correlation is statistically significant for maize only, the outcome is a call to review the macro-food policy taking into account ENSO-related phase effects to redress food insecurity. The study recommends incentives for agricultural productivity including irrigation intensification and small grain value chain development, trade and food security arrangements, income generation opportunities and strategic partnerships for improved food and nutrition security.

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“…The concept of the paper has evolved over a decade of experiences from varied global and local events such as financial, pandemics, droughts, and conflicts. It was initially developed in 2010 as a follow-up to preliminary studies that mapped local vulnerabilities [ 138 , 155 ] and from which other related work was developed [ 137 , [156] , [157] , [158] , [159] ]. Since then, the paper has gone through many iterations and has benefited significantly from each.…”