Elaboration of stochastic models to comprehensive evaluation of occupational risks in complex dynamic systems

Abstract

Purpose: Elaborate stochastic models to comprehensive evaluation of occupational risks in “man - machine - environment” systems taking into account the random and dynamic nature of the impact on the employee of negative factors over time. Design/methodology/approach: Within study, the methods of probability theory and the theory of Markov processes - to find the limit distribution of the random process of dynamic impact on the employee of negative factors over time and obtain main rates against which the level of occupational risks within the "man - machine - environment" systems can be comprehensively evaluated; Erlang phases method, Laplace transform, difference equations theory, method of mathematical induction - to elaborate a method of analytical solution of the appropriate limit task for a system of differential equations in partial derivatives and appropriate limit conditions were used. Findings: A system of differential equations in partial derivatives and relevant limit conditions is derived, which allowed to identify the following main rates for comprehensive evaluation of occupational risks in systems "man - machine - environment": probability of excess the limit of the employee's accumulation of negative impact of the harmful production factor; probability of the employee’s injury of varying severity in a random time. An method to the solution the limit task for a system of differential equations, which allows to provide a lower bounds of the probability of a certain occupational danger occurrence was elaborated. Research limitations/implications: The elaborated approach to injury risk evaluation is designed to predict cases of non-severe injuries. At the same time, this approach allows to consider more severe cases too, but in this case the task will be more difficult. Practical implications: The use of the elaborated models allows to apply a systematic approach to the evaluation of occupational risks in enterprises and to increase the objectivity of the evaluation results by taking into account the real characteristics of the impact of negative factors on the employee over time. Originality/value: For the first time, a special subclass of Markov processes - Markov drift processes was proposed and substantiated for use to comprehensive evaluation of occupational risks in “man - machine - environment” systems.

Increasing the safety of the transport process by minimizing the professional risk of a dump truck driver

“…A mandatory component of these programs is occupational risk assessment, which includes the identification of hazards inherent in technical vehicles, the driver and road conditions. In this case, in accordance with the requirements of the standard [23], the magnitude of occupational risk is calculated as the product of the probability of a dangerous situation and the severity of the consequences. This approach in determining the risk of an accident while driving leads to errors in the calculations, because it does not take into account the possibility of monitoring the psychophysiological state of the driver, which act as a "catalyst" for a dangerous event.…”

“…The "HAZOP" method and the "FMEA" method were chosen to assess occupational risks in rock transportation because they combine well with each other and allow detailing each stage of the production process to identify hazards and system performance as a whole, conducted by a specially selected experts group. In addition, their use to assess the degree of occupational risk of the driver is recommended by a number of regulatory requirements [20]- [23].…”

“…The group of experts (Table 2) assesses three main occupational risk factors for the mode of possible potential hazards: severity of consequences (S), probability of failure / incident (O), and detection of defect (D). The product of these components S, O and D allows you to determine the value of RPN by the Formula 1 [25]: [23] yes The assessment of occupational risk, which is obtained by the algorithm of the method "FMEA" continues until the full identification of the RPN value indicating the highest values of occupational risk. The most influential factors are those in which the RPN value exceeds 150 points [25].…”

Аспектація Напрямів Удосконалення Сфери Державного Регулювання, Експертизи Та Соціального Страхування З Охорони Праці

“…Об'єктивне визначення, як рівня професійного ризику, так і відповідної суми страхових внесків є нетривіальним завданням, оскільки при цьому слід враховувати реальні характеристики випадкового і динамічного впливу на працівника небезпечних та шкідливих виробничих факторів, що ідентифіковані на кожному робочому місті. Тому, на практиці для розрахунку рівня професійного ризику і відповідної суми внесків, в більшості країн світу, де впроваджена зазначена система (як правило розвинуті країни, Німеччина, Бельгія, Франція, Іспанія, Португалія, Фінляндія, Люксембург) [25] використовуються методики, що основані на більш простих -експертних методах розрахунку [26][27][28].…”

Methodology for assessing the risk of incidents during passenger road transportation using the functional resonance analysis method

“…But the authors used FRAM to analyse only transport accidents, not fully revealing the method's relevance in terms of detecting all traffic hazards, which can pose a threat when combined. The judgment assessment based on event modelling is a desirable component of transportation risk management [ 27 , 28 , 29 ].…”