A carbon tax can induce innovation in green technologies. Over time, these technological advances lower the cost of reducing carbon emissions. However, the magnitudes of the response of innovation and of the accompanying effects on energy prices, production, and carbon emissions remain open questions. This paper develops a general equilibrium model of endogenous innovation and energy, which I use to quantify the dynamic effects of a carbon tax. I find that the carbon tax induces large movements in innovation that have considerable effects on energy-related aggregates. Moreover, abstracting from endogenous innovation-and modeling technological progress as exogenous-results in a substantial overestimation of the size of the carbon tax necessary to attain a given reduction in emissions. A quantitative understanding of the consequences of endogenous innovation is important, since government agencies often evaluate climate mitigation projects based partly on climate-economy models that abstract from endogenous innovation.
1The central contribution of this paper is to quantify the interaction between endogenous innovation and climate policy in a dynamic, general equilibrium framework that explicitly models innovation in fossil energy, green energy, and nonenergy 1 For example, the social cost of carbon that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses to evaluate climate policies is, in part, based on climate-economy models that do not incorporate endogenous innovation.