Election forecasts: Cracking the Danish case

Nadeau, Richard; Lewis‐Beck, Michael S.

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.007

Cited by 6 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 19 publications

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“…As most campaign information still reaches voters through mass-media outlets (Hillygus, 2005;Nadeau and Lewis-Beck, 2012), political actors have a strong incentive to try to influence their agenda. Plenty of scholars offer deep strategic thinking about which issues should be chosen, how to select them, and for what purpose (Hillygus and Shields, 2014;Lees-Marshment, 2014;Vavreck, 2009).…”

Section: Electoral Agenda-buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-linear agenda-building: The impacts of media storms during the 2015 Canadian election

Dumouchel

2022

Party Politics

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A common limitation of most analyses of electoral agenda-building dynamics is that they tend to operate under the assumption that the underlying dynamics between the political actors’ and the media’s agendas are more or less stable across time. Drawing upon recent work on media storms, I theorize that political parties have considerably less influence in periods that are characterized by sudden and explosive increases in media coverage of a particular issue. Using an automated content analysis built around a custom-made dictionary, I examine how parties’ electoral agenda-building efficiency was affected by media storms during the 2015 Canadian federal election. My results support the idea that storm periods diminish parties’ influence on the following day’s media agenda, as the impact of parties’ daily issue attention tend to be weaker. These findings demonstrate the non-linearity of electoral agenda-building dynamics and imply that some electoral contexts are less conducive to political actors’ influence.

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