Electoral appeal of climate policies: The Green New Deal and the 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections

Abstract

Climate issues widely feature in policy discussions, but it is not clear if voters reward politicians who champion climate policies. In some countries, candidates and parties with an explicit climate agenda have done well in elections (Switzerland and Germany being recent examples) while in other cases, voters have either ignored climate issues or punished candidates/parties for their climate positions (Australia, the U.K., and Canada). Focusing on the U.S. as a case study, we examine the electoral appeal of the Green New Deal (GND) legislative proposal which outlined a vision for a sustainable and equitable economy. Different versions of the GND policy idea have been adopted across the world. The GND was introduced in the US Congress in 2019 and was endorsed by 102 of the 232 House Democrats, but not by a single Republican. Our analysis finds an association between Democrats’ endorsement of the GND and a 2.01 percentage point increase in their vote share, even after controlling for the 2018 vote share. Unlike most western democracies, the U.S. is a laggard on climate issues. Yet, we find that U.S. voters reward legislators who advocate an ambitious climate policy agenda.

Does partisanship shape public support for suspending U.S. federal gas tax? A survey experiment

“…The lack of significance of the economy frame among Democrats is inconsistent with a recent study [41] that finds that Democrats who endorsed the Green New Deal (which framed climate policy in terms of its economic and social implications) received about a 2% higher vote share in the 2020 Congressional elections in relation to Democrats who did not. Overall, these results support Hypothesis 4 but not Hypotheses 5 and 6.…”

How to Get Coal Country to Vote for Climate Policy: The Effect of a ‘Just Transition Agreement’ on Spanish Election Results

“…While our study focused on the electoral significance of such policy packages in fossil fuel-producing communities, it lends credence to the political logic underlying economy-wide "Green New Deal"-style policy programs that combine ambitious climate action with wider economic and social reforms that benefit working people (cf. Bergquist, Mildenberger, and Stokes 2020;Carmack, Dolšak, and Prakash 2022;Green and Healy 2022). As our case study suggests, such strategies are likely to be particularly attractive to left-wing political parties, which are otherwise especially vulnerable to the "jobs vs environment" dilemma.…”

Pursuing decarbonization along with national security: Assessing public support for the Thacker Pass lithium mine

“…Interestingly, while the coefficient of local economic development is positive, the coefficient of climate frame is negative (although neither achieves statistical significance). This raises issues about the political appeal of the climate issues which seemed to have had traction in Finland's 2019 parliamentary elections [64], Switzerland's 2019 federal elections [65], 2020 US Congressional elections [66], and Germany's 2021 federal elections. In Brazil, protecting the Amazon, the critical component of climate mitigation which imposes local PLOS ONE [69].…”