Electoral Competition, the EU Issue and Far-right Success in Western Europe

Abstract

We argue theoretically and demonstrate empirically that to understand the electoral fortunes of far-right parties in Western Europe, we need to consider the advantages and disadvantages these parties encounter in the multidimensional political issue space. We argue that salience changes among the electorate benefit far-right parties more than shifting far-right parties’ policy positions. We further posit that changes in the public salience of European integration are more important for far-right success than other issues -- including immigration. Utilizing similar survey questions from the Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES) about parties’ positions and the European Election Studies (EES) about voters’ policy preferences, we estimate multidimensional voting models in 12 West European countries. We then use mathematical simulations to show that the issue that matters most for far-right success is European integration. This research has important implications for the study of electoral competition, parties’ campaign strategies, and voting behavior.

How much does issue salience matter? A model with applications to the UK elections

“…In varying degrees, these results and methodology are generalizable to other contexts, as shown by Kurella (2019) and Vasilopoulou and Zur (2022). Our conclusions also pertain to recent empirical research analyzing parties' strategic choices over whether to campaign by emphasizing their non-policy attributes versus their policy positions and priorities (Bjarnøe et al, 2022).…”

“…That is, we simulate how parties' expected vote shares change as a function of plausible changes in issue saliencies. While this approach is relatively new, recent studies apply it to analyze the electoral success of far-right parties in national elections (Kurella, 2019) and European Parliament elections (Vasilopoulou & Zur, 2022). We take a broader perspective to show how this approach can illuminate the electoral implications of changes in issue salience for all party families.…”

Free to move, reluctant to share: Unequal opposition to transnational rights under the EU's free movement principle

“…Among these rights, we argue that welfare rights carry a greater potential for politicisation than other entitlements. Admittedly, other rights, such as the right to work or do business in another EU country, could potentially be linked to debates triggered by the far right on the risks of migrant labour such as unfair competition to the local population (see also Vasilopoulou and Zur, 2022 for the role of the EU issue in far-right party success). However, non-nationals working or doing business in the country also necessarily imply contributions to the national economy.…”