Electoral cycles, stock market volatility and exchange rate: The indissoluble trivet

Abstract

This paper seeks to unravel the connectivity between stock market volatility and exchange rate within the political cycles of sovereign states presidential election years between 2000-2016 using the dynamic system GMM estimation and VECH technique data source from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). A significant positive relationship between market volatility and exchange rate manifests in the studied countries, more in Nigeria and South Africa. A significant shift in a conditional correlation of the variances of most markets exists except for Kenya, Japan, and Hong Kong. This perhaps is indicative of weak institutional and democratic culture within the financial system; hence independence of public institutions would guarantee non-interference that ensures policy consistency. Financial, economic and behavioral finance barometers need to integrate both local and international political development for effective and result-driven investment. As a result of the significant opportunistic business cycle effect that manifested with a significant shift in the conditional correlations of the variances of some of the markets we strongly believe that a truly independent central bank would not only guarantee political non-interference but also will ensure policy consistency.