Electoral Volatility in Latin America

The Role of International Factors in Electoral Volatility in Latin America: An Examination of Structural Adjustment

“…In the context of Latin America, Cohen et al (2018) note that their results for the period from 1980 to 1990 support those of Remmer (1991) and Roberts and Wibbels (1999) who find that economic variables influence electoral volatility in Latin American countries. According to Cohen et al (2018), however, these results are not stable across time and one sees no such relationships between legislative volatility and these economic variables in the period from 1978 to 2016. Hernández and Kriesi (2016) find that the "Great Recession" had relatively weak effects on party stability in Central and Eastern Europe "where political rather than economic failures appeared to be more relevant" (203).…”

“…We remain hopeful that future researchers will address these issues in their work. Calculated by squaring the share of the parties in an election and adding all the squares together, lagged by 1 year LAPALE data set (Cohen et al, 2018)…”

“…In addition, during this period, the IMF made agreements with numerous Latin American countries which required governments to adhere to policy prescriptions and conditionalities established by the Fund (Pop-Eleches, 2009). This coincided with a great increase in electoral volatility in the region between the 1980s and 1990s (Cohen et al, 2018). As such, the time-series for the study is appropriate to test our hypotheses.…”

“…Significant discord and gaps, however, remain in the literature. For example, the study of the relationship between economic factors and electoral volatility in Latin America extends back decades, and yet no consensus has emerged on the economic factors that drive electoral volatility or whether economic factors play any role at all (compare Remmer (1991), Roberts and Wibbels (1999), and Cohen et al (2018)). Perhaps more important, there has been little attention given to the role of economic adjustment.…”

Los ciclos políticos y el cambio en el sistema de partidos mexicano. Las elecciones de 2018 en retrospectiva

“…Estos patrones habían consolidado un cambio surgido a partir de las elecciones de 2000 y que dura hasta las de 2012. Una muestra del cambio en el sistema de partidos es que, a pesar del aumento en la volatilidad electoral durante este periodo, al igual que otros sistemas latinoamericanos (Cohen et al, 2018), el nivel de cambio en las dinámicas del voto en estas últimas elecciones asume los valores más altos en todo el periodo democrático. Esto tiene que ver con los patrones de cambio señalados por Mair (2002: 46-47), como ocurre con el ingreso de nuevos partidos que polarizan al sistema, provocando así mayores niveles de fragmentación en la arena parlamentaria.…”