Electric Vehicle Market Diffusion in Main Non–European Markets

Abstract

Electric vehicles (i.e., battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) are seen as one promising technology toward a sustainable transport system as they have the potential to reduce CO2 emissions. The forecast of their market penetration depends on various factors including the cost development of key components such as the electric battery. This chapter focuses on the impact of experience curves on the battery costs, and consequently on the electric vehicles’ market penetration, which is simulated by coupling two system dynamics transport models: ASTRA, representing Europe, and TE3, representing key non-European car markets. The results of the TE3 model show that the consideration of global endogenous learning curves has an impact on the battery costs and therefore, the development of the electric vehicle stock (“feedback loop”).