Electric Vehicle Market Penetration and Impacts on Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in the Future: Beijing Case

Abstract

This study focuses on the development of electric vehicles (EV) in the private passenger vehicle fleet in Beijing (China), analyzes how EVs will penetrate in the market, and estimates the resulting impacts on energy consumption and CO 2 emissions up to 2030. A discrete choice model is adopted with consideration of variables including vehicle technical characteristics, fuel prices, charging conditions and support policies. Results show that by 2030, without technological breakthrough and support policies, the market share of EV will be less than 7%, with gasoline dominating the energy structure. With fast technological progress, charging facility establishment, subsidies and tax breaks, EVs will account for 70% of annual new vehicle sales and nearly half of the vehicle stock by 2030, resulting in the substitution of nearly 1 million tons of gasoline with 3.2 billion kWh electricity in 2030 and the reduction of 0.6 million tons of CO 2 emission in 2030. Technological progress, charging conditions and fuel prices are the top three drivers. Subsidies play an important role in the early stage, while tax and supply-side policies can be good options as long-term incentives.

Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World

“…Therefore, it would be possible to use PHEV daily mainly on an electricity basis for reducing the overall fuel cost, and hence improving fuel economy. PHEVs are not zero-emission vehicles, since fossil fuel is still used, but it has been observed that about 70% of all driven kilometers could be electric and only 30% are typically based on fossil fuels [16,17], which can drastically reduce GHG emissions, in particular if fossil-fuel-free electricity is used. BEVs are vehicles type that rely solely on electric propulsion and consist of comparable components to PHEV, though without the ICE and higher battery capacity, and it could use a more powerful electric engine.…”

Sustainable Governance for the Opened Electric Vehicle Charging and Upgraded Facilities Market

“…In fact, the subsidy is very different in diverse regions. According to the data we have collected and the research of Zhang et al [29], we find some provinces used to provide subsidies of half the EV's price, while others no more than $1500. To conduct the new plan of the central government, many local governments have to lower their subsidies on the consumption of EVs.…”

“…According to our survey, we find that the costs of EVs are largely due to their power batteries, so engineers are continually concentrating on the technology to improve the battery capacity and service life to lower the unit cost. Based on Zhang et al [29], the unit cost of battery in 2015 is $380/kWh, and we assume three different kinds of situations: stagnation, rapid growth and rapid growth plus, in which the unit cost of battery decrease at the rate of 4.5%, 9.8% and 12.3%. Together with the paper of Hao et al [31], we reasonably speculate the battery capacity will increase at the rate of 6.8% per year, in the next five years.…”

“…Some reasons for this situation are the heavy investment and the low efficiency of charging piles. According to Zhang et al [29], we assume a typical owner of an EV, with 14,143 km driving per year.…”

Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of the Increased Electricity Demand Associated with the Penetration of Electric Vehicles in Spain

“…For instance, Liu et al [14] evaluated the variability of the electricity demand under the hypothesis of full penetration of EV in the Scandinavian countries by 2050. Bohnes et al [15] and Zhang et al [16] carried out analyses of the environmental impacts resulting from EV deployment in Copenhagen and Beijing, respectively. Höltl et al [17] analysed several scenarios including the electrification of the car fleet in Europe and its consequences.…”