Electricity capacity expansion plan for Lesotho – implications on energy policy

Senatla, Mamahloko; Nchake, Mamello; Taele, B. M.; Hapazari, Innocent

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.06.003

Cited by 17 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 10 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The electricity deficit is expected to further increase in the near future due to the expected growth of population, ongoing or planned electrification projects and growth of mining and other sectors. Projections from a recent study indicate a peak load in the range 527-684 MW and an annual electricity demand in the range 1706-4130 GWh by 2050 considering two different growth scenarios, referred to as "business as usual" and "high demand", respectively [17]. Electricity supply in Lesotho has continuously increased over the last decades from about 200 GWh per year in 1990 to 900 GWh per year [13] (red line in Figure 2a), with average and peak load of 90-100 MW and 150-160 MW [14,15], respectively.…”

Section: Energy Sector Status/situation In Lesothomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The difficulties in energy distribution affects, in turn, the discussion on how to effectively increase the national electricity production, in addition to the already planned Phase II of LHWP. These topics were extensively addressed by policymakers, stakeholders, practitioners and scholars, and different solutions were proposed [17,[21][22][23][24][25]. Despite a certain lack of general consensus, the following points are currently assumed as fundamental for electricity expansion planning in Lesotho:…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A Cooperation Project in Lesotho: Renewable Energy Potential Maps Embedded in a WebGIS Tool

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper the background, activities undertaken, and main outcomes of the cooperation project “Renewable Energy Potential Maps for Lesotho” are presented. The project was launched in 2018 in fulfilment of the Paris Agreement by the Italian Ministry for the Environment and the Lesotho Ministry of Energy and Meteorology, with the aim to facilitate the local Government in the future planning and development of renewable energy in the country. A user-oriented WebGIS platform was utilised to share and analyse the outcomes of the project: a hydrological map to recognize potential areas for power generation; a wind atlas to identify specific sites with the most potential for wind energy generation; a solar radiation map, defining the different levels of radiation intensity, useful to localise sites for photovoltaic production. Human capacity building and technology transfer were carried out to strengthen the local expertise and ability to manage and plan renewable energy sources exploitation. The implementation of the project was based on a fruitful collaboration between scientists and stakeholders at the same time giving the local authorities a useful dataset and tool for renewable energy growth in Lesotho.

show abstract

Section: Energy Sector Status/situation In Lesothomentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Cooperation Project in Lesotho: Renewable Energy Potential Maps Embedded in a WebGIS Tool

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A wide literature review of these models is given in Suganthi and Samuel (2012) but without any focus on a specific country. In the case of Lesotho, an econometric model, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), is employed for long-term electricity demand forecast (Senatla et al, 2018). The forecast is done from 2016 to 2050, assuming two scenarios for predetermined growth rate in electricity consumption.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lesotho electricity demand profile from 2010 to 2030

Mpholo

Mothala

Mohasoa

et al. 2021

J. energy South. Afr.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study undertook a 2010 to 2030 electricity demand profile for Lesotho, with 2010 used as the base year. The demand forecast was modelled using the International Atomic Energy Agency Model for Analysis of Energy Demand, largely because of its proven ability to accurately forecast demand in developing economies based on socio-economic, technology and demography variables. The model correlates well with the actual data, where data exists, and predicts that by 2030 Lesotho will achieve a national electrification rate of 54.2%, with 95% for urban households and 14% for rural households, up from 19.4%, 54.1% and 1.8% respectively in the base year. Moreover, in the same period, the forecast for the most likely scenario gives the following results: the maximum demand will increase to 211 MW from 121 MW; the annual average household energy consumption will continue its decline to 1 009 kWh/household from 1 998 kWh/household; and the total consumption will increase to 1 128 284 MWh from 614 868 MWh. The overall low growth rate is attributed to the consistently declining average household consumption that is contrary to international norms. The forecast results gave a root mean square percentage error of 1.5% and mean absolute percentage error of 1.3%, which implied good correlation with the actual data and, hence, confidence in the accuracy of the results. Highlights Between 2030 and 2010: Achievement of national electrification rate of 54.2% up from 19.4%. Electrification: 95% urban, 14% rural households, from 54.1% and 1.8% respectively. The maximum demand will increase to 211 MW from 121 MW. Annual average household consumption will decline to 1 009 kWh/household from 1,998 kWh/household

show abstract

“…To understand the installable capacity of rooftop systems, further studies are required. Similar to conducting the integrated resource planning (IRP) when planning for inclusion of PV systems at utility-scale as shown in [11][12][13][14], there is also a need to conduct optimal or economic capacity that is deployable for distributed PV rooftop systems. Estimating the economic potential for rooftop systems is crucial to inform policymakers so that conducive policies can be drafted if this capacity is significant and can be used to contribute to the emission reduction targets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At the utility-scale, the process of estimating economic potential is through IRP planning process, which determines techno-economic electrical capacity that can be deployed in a country or region [11][12][13]. Assessing theoretical energy resource potential serves as a critical input for IRP planning together with technical limitations and costs (investment and operating) for any technology that is considered as a part of the mix.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the economic potential of PV rooftop systems in South Africa's residential sector: a tale of eight metropolitan cities

Senatla

Bansal

Naidoo

et al. 2020

IET Renewable Power Generation

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The cost of producing electricity with solar photovoltaic (PV) has decreased drastically in the past 10 years, so much that the installed PV capacity has increased exponentially between 2010 and 2018. South Africa is endowed with a technical potential of 72 GW for PV rooftop systems, but the economic potential is largely unknown. As a result, the integrated resource plan assumes that an annual installation of 200 MW of distributed generation will be made between 2018 and 2030. This study evaluates the economic potential of rooftop PV systems in the residential sector within metropolitan cities in South Africa using financial metrics. The important financial metrics used to qualify an investment are net present value, internal rate of return (IRR) and payback period. An investment is expected to pay itself back in less than 10 years with a high rate of return (IRR). Households are classified into living standards measure so that it is easier to map customers to related tariffs. Using this method, the eight metropolitan municipalities will have PV economic potential of 11 GW in 2019 and 22.7 GW by 2030 if the current tariff grows at 5% and the tariff structure does not change.

show abstract

Electricity capacity expansion plan for Lesotho – implications on energy policy

Cited by 17 publications

References 10 publications

A Cooperation Project in Lesotho: Renewable Energy Potential Maps Embedded in a WebGIS Tool

A Cooperation Project in Lesotho: Renewable Energy Potential Maps Embedded in a WebGIS Tool

Lesotho electricity demand profile from 2010 to 2030

Estimating the economic potential of PV rooftop systems in South Africa's residential sector: a tale of eight metropolitan cities

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About