Electricity Demand Prediction of Beijing during the 13th Five-year

Abstract

With the emergence of a "new economic norm" and the development of "economic integration in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei", electricity demand situation in Beijing will change significantly in the future. To guide the planning and construction of power grid in Beijing, it is indispensable to predict electricity demand during the 13th Five-year. Since the factors and affecting mechanisms for electricity demand are different in different sectors, the total electricity consumption in this paper is divided into five parts: the first industry, industry, construction industry, the tertiary industry and resident sectors. The exponential smoothing method and co-integration theory are introduced to establish the forecasting model of electricity demand in different sectors. Therefore, based on the forecasting model and scenario analysis, the analysis results show that the total electricity consumption will grow at an annual rate of 4.9%-6.0% during 13th Five-Year-Plan period, and the consumption would reach more than 0.1397×1012 kWh in 2020.