The electrochemical CO
2
reduction reaction
(CO
2
RR) is important for a sustainable future. Key insights
into the
reaction pathways have been obtained by density functional theory
(DFT) analysis, but so far, DFT has been unable to give an overall
understanding of selectivity trends without important caveats. We
show that an unconsidered parameter in DFT models of electrocatalysts—the
surface coverage of reacting species—is crucial for understanding
the CO
2
RR selectivities for different surfaces. Surface
coverage is a parameter that must be assumed in most DFT studies of
CO
2
RR electrocatalysts, but so far, only the coverage of
nonreacting adsorbates has been treated. Explicitly treating the surface
coverage of reacting adsorbates allows for an investigation that can
more closely mimic operating conditions. Furthermore, and of more
immediate importance, the use of surface coverage-dependent adsorption
energies allows for the extraction of ratios of adsorption energies
of CO
2
RR intermediates (COOH
ads
and HCOO
ads
) that are shown to be predictive of selectivity and are
not susceptible to systematic errors. This approach allows for categorization
of the selectivity of several monometallic catalysts (Pt, Pd, Au,
Ag, Zn, Cu, Rh, W, Pb, Sn, In, Cd, and Tl), even problematic ones
such as Ag or Zn, and does so by only considering the adsorption energies
of known intermediates. The selectivity of the further reduction of
COOH
ads
can now be explained by a preference for Tafel
or Heyrovsky reactions, recontextualizing the nature of selectivity
of some catalysts. In summary, this work resolves differences between
DFT and experimental studies of the CO
2
RR and underlines
the importance of surface coverage.