Elements of a pragmatic approach for dealing with bias and uncertainty in experiments through predictions : experiment design and data conditioning; %22real space%22 model validation and conditioning; hierarchical modeling and extrapolative prediction.

Abstract

This report explores some important considerations in devising a practical and consistent framework and methodology for utilizing experiments and experimental data to support modeling and prediction. A pragmatic and versatile "Real Space" approach is outlined for confronting experimental and modeling bias and uncertainty to mitigate risk in modeling and prediction. The elements of experiment design and data analysis, data conditioning, model conditioning, model validation, hierarchical modeling, and extrapolative prediction under uncertainty are examined. An appreciation can be gained for the constraints and difficulties at play in devising a viable end-to-end methodology. Rationale is given for the various choices underlying the Real Space end-to-end approach. The approach adopts and refines some elements and constructs from the literature and adds pivotal new elements and constructs. Crucially, the approach reflects a pragmatism and versatility derived from working many industrial-scale problems involving complex physics and constitutive models, steady-state and time-varying nonlinear behavior and boundary conditions, and various types of uncertainty in experiments and models. The framework benefits from a broad exposure to integrated experimental and modeling activities in the areas of heat transfer, solid and structural mechanics, irradiated electronics, and combustion in fluids and solids.4

Validation and Uncertainty Quantification of a Multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

“…Several validation metrics have been reported in the literature. 29 Here we employ the area validation metric proposed and used in Roy and Oberkampf. 10 For this purpose, an empirical CDF is generated with the experimental data (staircase-shaped eCDF shown in Figure 9 with a thick black line).…”

“…Several validation metrics have been reported in the literature . Here we employ the area validation metric proposed and used in Roy and Oberkampf 10.…”