Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been widely proposed for protecting overexploited fish populations. It has been suggested that fisheries may be enhanced by spillover of individuals from MPAs into fishing grounds. However, traditional spillover studies fail to account for the seasonal migrations of many populations. Most fisheries models also fail to include the stochasticity inherent in marine environments explicitly. Here we assess MPA efficacy using a simple population model simulating the migration of fish populations between a spawning ground MPA and a fishery. Including realistic environmental stochasticity in our model allows the population to deviate from, and shift between, positive stable equilibria, something that is impossible in a deterministic analysis. This deviation may result in population collapse in cases where deterministic analysis predicts population persistence. We show that, although effective at low migration levels, the ability of MPAs to protect stocks from collapse generally decreases as migration increases. However, an MPA provides greater protection and greater expected fisheries yield than a system without an MPA, irrespective of migration level. Combining MPAs with a harvest control rule may further increase protection and yield. We therefore argue that MPAs can play a role in the protection of migratory species.Keywords: marine reserves, migration, overfishing, regime shifts, seasonal movement, sustainability, uncertainty.
IntroductionMarine protected areas (MPAs) have been advocated as a way to slow or reverse the decline in fish stocks and biodiversity in our oceans attributed to overfishing (Worm et al., 2006(Worm et al., , 2007. In addition to the protection of target species, MPAs can protect the seabed and associated benthos from the damaging effects of trawling (Kaiser et al., 2002). They can also eliminate the fishing mortality of non-target species locally, something which is difficult to achieve with traditional management measures (Sobel and Dahlgren, 2004). However, it must be emphasized that MPA implementation should not stem from what has been termed "faith-based fisheries" (Hilborn, 2006). Rather, it should be based on solid scientific knowledge and an understanding of the consequences and benefits in specific management areas.In addition to the obvious survival benefits to fish located within MPAs, there is also the potential for the spillover of fish into neighbouring fisheries. This occurs when there is a net emigration of adult and juvenile fish across the boundary of an MPA and/or by the export of pelagic eggs and larvae (Gell and Roberts, 2003). There are examples where spillover has enhanced catches in adjacent fisheries (Roberts et al., 2001;Gell and Roberts, 2003). However, if the rate of spillover is too high, then the protective benefit of the MPA can be weakened because a greater proportion of the fish stock will be exposed to fishing (Kramer and Chapman, 1999). Empirical studies have shown that fish with small home ranges are more readily protected ...