10An improved understanding of life history responses to current environmental variability is 11 required to predict species-specific responses to anthopogenic climate change. Previous research 12 has suggested that cooperation in social groups may buffer individuals against some of the negative 13 effects of unpredictable climates. We use a 15-year dataset on a cooperative-breeding arid-zone 14 bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor, to test i) whether environmental conditions and 15 group size correlate with survival of young during three development stages (egg, nestling, 16 fledgling), and ii) whether group size mitigates the impacts of adverse environmental conditions 17 on reproductive success. Exposure to high mean daily maximum temperatures (mean Tmax) during 18 early development was associated with reduced survival probabilities of young in all three 19 development stages. No young survived when mean Tmax > 38°C across all group sizes. Low 20 reproductive success at high temperatures has broad implications for recruitment and population 21 persistence in avian communities given the rapid pace of advancing climate change. That impacts 22temperature and rainfall patterns have led to adjustments to the timing and success of 46 reproduction in some bird species [19,20]. For birds in arid environments, higher rainfall is often 47 associated with improved reproductive success [21,22], droughts are associated with reduced 48 reproductive success [23,24] and periods of very hot weather are typically associated with lower 49 nest survival rates [15,25] and nestling growth rates [26][27][28]. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect 50 that reproductive success and population persistence of birds in arid environments will be 51 impacted as regions become hotter and drier under climate change [29,30].
52Cooperative breeding, where more than two individuals rear a single brood [31], occurs 53 in ~9% of bird species [32]. Reproductive benefits of cooperation include earlier fledging age 54 and more broods raised per season [33]; reduced costs of breeding for females [11,34]; enhanced 55 egg investment [35]; increased fledgling recruitment [17,36]; and the ability to raise overlapping 56 broods [12,37]. Global comparative studies suggest that cooperative breeding evolved in 57 unpredictable environments [38], facilitated the colonisation of such environments [39], or 58 prevented extinction under increasingly harsh conditions [40]. One prominent explanation for the 59 occurrence of cooperative breeding in birds in variable environments is that it represents a 'bet-60 hedging' strategy [38], whereby breeding individuals share the costs of reproduction with helpers 61 and are thus able to reduce interannual variation in reproductive success in response to 62 unpredictable rainfall and food availability [9]. This implies that cooperation might buffer 63 breeding attempts from failure during adverse environmental conditions [13,41]. 64 A likely mechanism underlying such benefits of cooperation is load-lightening...